Gale Warning 89, NWS Anchorage, AK

607 
FZAK52 PAFC 212355
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 MB LOW 230 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT
MOVES TO 380 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OVER
RUSSIA AND WEAKEN. A 967 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 340 NM
SOUTH OF ADAK AT THE SAME STRENGTH TUE AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN TO 977
MB AS IT MOVES TO 360 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-221500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BERING SIDE...8 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT ON THE BERING SIDE. SEAS 4
FT BERING SIDE...8 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-221500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW.
.TUE...BERING SIDE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S AND W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-221500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON JAN 21 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS PUSHING EAST ALONG INTO
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A MOISTURE PLUME ALONG
THE BORDERING PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS STREAMING NORTH OVER SOUTH ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN BERING. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN
AREAS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE
LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE EXPANSIVE COMPLEX LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL CLOSE
OFF FROM THE COMPLEX LOW BY MONDAY MORNING...ONE CENTER SOUTH OF
COLD BAY AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF SHEMYA. THESE CENTERS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD STAYING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. A RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NAM AND THE ECMWF WERE
THE MODELS OF CHOICE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE LOW CENTER DISSIPATES. THROUGH
MIDWEEK...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE
COAST AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN TO NORTHERN GULF.
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRONG EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BRISTOL AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY AND AND TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN INTO BRISTOL
BAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF. ONLY ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE BREAK IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
CLOUDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE AN
EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ARCTIC AIR
PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING. LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTH OF
ALASKA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF RAIN OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 140 160 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KH JAN 13