Gale Warning 824, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT NOV 23 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA WITH A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND ANOTHER (WEAKER) RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
CENTERED JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. EVEN THE
NAM IS NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT EARLY ON...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE USED
PAST 48 HOURS IN THE GULF DUE TO ITS KNOW STRUGGLES WITH LOWS COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN A PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL PUSH NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE GULF HIGH ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
SEE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW/RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DUTCH HARBOR LOW WILL STAY OVER THE AREA. THE
UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ON MONDAY WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF (MONDAY) AND
THEN TO THE GULF COAST (MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY). THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUPPLIED BY THE RIDGE.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE PATTERN OF TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE (MOVE
WESTWARD) THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AS THE DUTCH HARBOR LOW MOVES INTO
THE BERING SEA THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING
SEA WILL INCREASE...BRINGING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 150 155 172 180.
       HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 13