Gale Warning 808, NWS Anchorage, AK

677 
FZAK51 PAFC 191210
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ119-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-200300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-200300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-200300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-200300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-200300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-200300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MAINLAND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE HEADING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA TOMORROW.
GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW...BUT ARE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT FROM
YESTERDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS AS DROPPING PRESSURES IN THE INTERIOR
CAUSE THE COASTAL GRADIENTS TO RELAX.  OUT WEST...A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO FESTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...MEANDERING EASTWARD
WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THIS COMPLEX STORM CONTINUES TO BRING AN
AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS/TUE
NIGHT AT WHICH POINT THERE IS STILL GREAT DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE
EVOLUTION THAT EVENTUALLY LEADS TO SOME KIND OF STORM SYSTEM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL AS SEVERAL MAJOR PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION AND INTERACTING AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. THIS MEANS THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WHICH INTRODUCES AN ADDITIONAL
MARGIN OF ERROR. BY FRIDAY ALL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE KEY TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH-LATITUDE BERING RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...AND THUS DEVELOPS THE UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST AND THE
ENTIRE LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. THE NAM IS
DIFFERENT THAN ALL OTHER MODELS (LIKELY DUE TO MULTIPLE FEATURES
COMING IN FROM THE CORNERS OF THE MODEL DOMAIN) AND WAS QUICKLY
DISCARDED BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE GFS/GEM ARE BOTH MORE MODERATE WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING LOW POSITION...AND
HAVE ALSO BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT DEPICTION OF LATE...AND WILL BE
USED TO LOOSELY GUIDE THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MAINLAND...SEVERAL MORE VERY COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE INTERIOR USHERS IN A FINAL SLUG OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION.
TYPICALLY THESE TYPE OF UPPER FEATURES MOVING THROUGH A COLD AIRMASS
ARE VERY LIMITED IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SIMPLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT SO SOME MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GAP
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY WITH COLD
AIR DUMPING OFF THE LANDMASS CONTINUING TO REINFORCE LOWER PRESSURES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A NEARLY-STATIONARY WEATHER FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO CRAWL EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE WIND AND RAIN BEING GRADUALLY PULLED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY COLD AIR TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INFILTRATE MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND CAUSE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL CHOSEN...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH
GREATLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE USUAL PLACES DRY...BUT THE GULF COASTLINE
LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION. OUT WEST...A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 127 175 176 177
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD NOV 13