Gale Warning 807, NWS Anchorage, AK

509 
FZAK51 PAFC 181209
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF THROUGH TUE EVENING.
$$

PKZ119-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-190300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-190300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-190300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT.  SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 10 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-190300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-190300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-190300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT SOUTHERN INLET. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN NOV 17 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA CONTINUES WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE AK PANHANDLE. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR TO SPILL OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...WITH NUMEROUS
TEMPERATURE READINGS BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
NORTHWARD. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS ALONG
THE GULF COAST...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AROUND VALDEZ.
MEANWHILE...A VERY SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE FIRST 60 HOURS OR SO OF
THE FORECAST...BUT BEGINS TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE BERING
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SUBTROPICAL AIR ATTEMPTS TO SURGE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA BY MIDWEEK. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
PIECES OF ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY THAT WILL BE INTERACTING...AND MANY OF
THE KEY DETAILS OF THIS INTERACTION REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. THE
NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT CAN BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED DUE TO AN
EXTREME OUTLIER EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE EC/GEM/GFS ALL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS FAVORED OVERALL...BY VIRTUE
OF HAVING THE MOST COMMON GROUND AMONG THE THREE GLOBAL MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MAINLAND...COLD AND CLEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STANDARD FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GAP WINDS TO EVENTUALLY FOLLOW SUIT
AROUND VALDEZ AND THE OTHER FAVORED AREAS. WITH EACH PASSING DAY THE
COLD AIRMASS BECOMES MORE AND MORE ENTRENCHED...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH WEAKENING WINDS MANY AREAS WILL SET NEW SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURE
MARKS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...LOITERING NORTH PACIFIC CUT-OFF LOW WILL
CONTINUE THE RAIN AND WIND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEED INTO THE EASTERN BERING...INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM SIBERIA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT STILL GENERALLY LIGHT...SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. HOWEVER...AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
TRANSITION TO THIS PATTERN. AS WARMER AIR AND THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS COMING WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IF ENOUGH SUBTROPICAL AIR IS ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 126 127 128 173 174 175 176 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD NOV 13