Gale Warning 803, NWS Anchorage, AK

662 
FZAK51 PAFC 170002
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF COPPER RIVER
DELTA. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND  
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND  
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-171500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-171500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-171500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
COAST. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ131-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT. S OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE COAST IN THE MORNING.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-171500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-171500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-171500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IMMINENT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE
STOUT RIDGE WHICH HAD DOMINATED THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS RETREATS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW
PROGRESSING EASTWARD NEAR 40N LATITUDE. THIS HAS ALLOWED ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER EASTERN RUSSIA...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING COLDER AND DRIER AIR OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AND RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. MEANWHILE...A CUTOFF LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE FEATURE
SOUTH OF ATTU ARE BRINGING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
DEPICTING PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION FOR THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH
RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF ATTU. THE EC 00Z EC HAS SHIFTED
THE LOW POSITION TO THE NORTH TO COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
WHERE THE OTHER MODELS WERE YESTERDAY...BUT CONTINUES TO DISPLAY POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE GFS HAS MEANWHILE TRENDED FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. UTILIZED THE NAM FOR THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRY
AND DEPICT THE BEST MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN THIS WEEKEND. THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF
THE LOW WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON RAIN AND WIND FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL LEAD TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS LASTING WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG GAP
WINDS THROUGH FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PARTICULARLY NEAR VALDEZ AND WHITTIER. A RELATIVELY WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GULF SHOULD KEEP THESE WINDS BELOW WARNING LEVEL...THOUGH GUSTS
APPROACHING 60 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
MUCH LIKE SOUTHCENTRAL...PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MID LEVELS COULD GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
DESPITE NOTED MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF
ATTU...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND BEFORE EVENTUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD KEEP STEADY RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...A DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE BERING AS
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN FAIRLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE COLD AND DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE EXTENDED
TERM WITH RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AND A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST
ON TUESDAY COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW. OTHER THAN
THAT...PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A LOW
EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 121 127 128 131 132 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB NOV 13