Gale Warning 775, NWS Anchorage, AK

692 
FZAK51 PAFC 051254
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 986 MB LOW 65 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO
175 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WHILE WEAKENING TO 1002 MB TONIGHT...THEN
WEAKENS TO 1013 MB NEAR CAPE OMMANEY WED NIGHT. A RESIDUAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING THROUGH WED
NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST TO THE WESTERN GULF LATE WED NIGHT.


$$

PKZ119-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-060300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-060300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-060300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER THIS MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-060300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT....

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-060300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-060300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-060300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 5 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON NOV 4 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BERING WILL MERGE TODAY OVER THE GULF...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS WELL AS THE GULF OF ALASKA BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SEASONABLY
COLDER AIR MASS AND WILL BRING INCREASED DRYING AND OFFSHORE
FLOW...AND WILL ESPECIALLY HELP TO INCREASE WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN BETWEEN THE INLAND AREAS AND THE GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND TODAY OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC...CROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE WESTERN BERING
TUESDAY...AND THEN REACH PEAK INTENSITY TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST-CENTRAL BERING. AT ITS PEAK THE CIRCULATION AND RESULTING FRONT
WILL LIKELY ENVELOP MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH STORM TO HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...AND/OR A LARGE SEA
SWELL CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WAVE HEIGHTS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. THE NAM AND GFS WERE
PREFERRED THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE EUROPEAN (EC) MODEL IS PREFERRED
THEREAFTER THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINING LARGELY OFFSHORE
TODAY...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST. BY TONIGHT...THE LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ABOUT HALF OF ANCHORAGE'S SNOW EVENTS
OCCUR WITH HEALTHY COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT WE'D ALSO LIKE TO SEE THE COLD ADVECTION MOVING FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST UP THE INLET WHERE IT CAN TAP INTO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE FROM THE SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY FOR SNOW LOVERS...THE COLD AIR
IN THIS CASE WILL BE COMING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...RESULTING IN
MORE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND A QUICKER CUT-OFF TO THE PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...WE ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT SNOW DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL AND
WILL FAVOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IT IS WITHIN REASON THAT THE
ANCHORAGE FORECAST OFFICE RECORDS THEIR FIRST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL OF
THE SEASON BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY HAZARDOUS AND WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MOVES INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST...

RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS BRINGING A DISTINCT DRYING TREND
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN RECENTLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE POWERFUL LOW IN THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING A WINTRY MIX TO MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN...

NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND NEARBY WATERS LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS WELL AS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
THE LOW ITSELF. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE IMMEDIATE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW...WHERE A SWATH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHEMYA AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE LOW WILL BE REACHING
PEAK INTENSITY. THE IMPRESSIVE STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT MOST OF THE
REGION WITH AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SEA SWELL...THUS CONTRIBUTING TO AN
INCREASED DANGER TO MARINERS AS WELL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE BERING SEA BY THURSDAY AND WILL
PUSH A WEAKENING FRONT EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS FRONT
WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN THE NEXT
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLY FROM
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY SOUTH LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...THEN IS FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO A COLDER AIR MASS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...187 191
MARINE...GALES...120 130-132 136-138 150 155 160 165 172-174 179 180
                 185
         STORMS...119 175-178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC NOV 13