Gale Warning 753, NWS Anchorage, AK

463 
FZAK61 PAFC 201230
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 20 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND THEN
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
TO 57N 154W THU EVENING AT 980 MB.
$$

PKZ351-210300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED NOV 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-210300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST WED NOV 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E TO S WIND 25 KT TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

772 
FZAK61 PAFC 210011
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 20 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF
THU AFTERNOON AND THEN HEAD INLAND THU EVENING. A DEVELOPING PACIFIC
LOW WILL TRACK TO 56N 156W THU AFTERNOON AT 980 MB. THIS LOW WILL
THEN TRACK TO COOK INLET FRI MORNING AND HEAD INLAND FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED NOV 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST WED NOV 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

936 
FZAK61 PAFC 211223
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK TO 56N 156W THIS AFTERNOON AT 977 MB AND
MOVE TO 58N 155W AT 981 MB LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND FRI
MORNING. A 983 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 54N 148W LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVE TO 58N 148W AT 981 MB FRI MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND FRI
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 16 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT...BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF 150W.
SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

708 
FZAK61 PAFC 220019
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 979 MB LOW NEAR 56N 156W WILL TRACK TO THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA 
EARLY FRI MORNING AND THEN HEAD INLAND ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT AND
TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE EASTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S TO W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S TO W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

530 
FZAK61 PAFC 221246
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-230300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 59N 153W WILL TRACK INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BY SUN MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

JM

286 
FZAK61 PAFC 230008
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST
ON SUN.

$$

PKZ351-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1235 PM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN IS IN PLACE
AT THE MOMENT WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD ANOTHER CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AN UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING COMING INTO PHASE. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW AR FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT-WAVE. THE AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THESE FEATURES IS NOT MUCH
COLDER THAN WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...SO IT IS
MORE OF A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR. A SEPARATE UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING. THE INTERACTION OF THIS
SHORT-WAVE WITH THE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IS ONE OF THE KEYS
TO THE PATTERN CHANGE. THE OTHER KEY IS A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. A LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING
INTO THIS SYSTEM. TO THIS POINT IN TIME THAT MOISTURE IS BEING
BLOCKED FROM MOVING TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA...BUT THAT WILL ALL
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...CONSIDERING THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF ARCTIC
SHORT-WAVES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...MODELS SEEM
TO ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL IDEA. THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME KEY
DIFFERENCES INCLUDING TRACK OF THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT MOVES TO
MAINLAND ALASKA AND ON WHETHER A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH COMMON CHARACTERISTICS
AMONG THE SOLUTIONS TO BEGIN TO HONE IN ON SOME OF THE LIKELY
IMPACTS. AS FAR AS A FAVORED SOLUTION FOR NOW PREFER A FARTHER
WEST LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL CENTER OVER THE BERING.
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO PROVIDE A NICE MIDDLE GROUND. WILL IGNORE THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS/NAM SOLUTION WITH TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT. NO
MATTER WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE GULF EXPECT WIDESPREAD GALES WITH
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS A FRONT
(OR TRIPLE POINT) APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A CONSISTENT TREND
TOWARD EVERYTHING MOVING THROUGH FASTER...SO THE LATEST FORECASTS
WILL REFLECT THAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS THE SHORT-WAVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA REACHES
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW CENTER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH
TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THEN MOVE BACK NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER CENTER. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS
EVOLVING PATTERN IS THE DEEPENING LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TAP INTO THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND FORCE IT NORTHWARD
TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DEPTH WILL BE THE KEY TO DETERMINING
PLACEMENT OF THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AND EXTENT OF WARM AIR MOVING
TO MAINLAND ALASKA. BASED ON THE LATEST CLUSTER OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
THE BULK OF WARM AIR WILL CROSS THE GULF AND MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START AS ALL SNOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND GAP WINDS WILL STILL BE
BLOWING WITH A PERSISTENTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS...WOULD
EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. AS THE WARM AIR OVERRIDES THE COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST SNOW WILL LIKELY HANG ON UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
FREEZING...SO BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT BE
A PROBLEM. WHERE PRECIPITATION STAYS ALL SNOW...PRIMARILY BACK OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR REACHING SNOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS THE ONE THING THAT
MIGHT LIMIT AMOUNTS. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. HOWEVER...HAVE ISSUES A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT COLDER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MOVE BACK
IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
TO SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN FACT MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY POTENT SHORT-WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW AND
CROSSING SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO STRONG WINDS FROM THE EASTERN BERING ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. WITH RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OUT THERE RIGHT NOW EXPECT GENERATION OF STEADY SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES OVER TOP OF THE OPEN WATER AND
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD ISSUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA.

THE PATTERN BEYOND THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT
THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WITH HANDLING OF NEXT COUPLE
SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REFLECT  PROGRESSIVE AND
DYNAMIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD. THIS MAKES IT
VERY DIFFICULT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN TRACK OF ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION
OR STORM SYSTEM. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN EXPECT CONTINUES ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 173
                        174 175 176 177.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 126 127 139 140 180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1030 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2013

AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-152-155-161-171-201200-

...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK...

ANOTHER CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATER THIS WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP
FROM THE PACIFIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE
DETAILED WEATHER IMPACTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
OUTLINE THE GENERAL TRENDS AND IMPACTS.

WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION WILL START IN THE
FORM OF SNOW AS IT MOVES IN SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. INLAND AREAS...
ESPECIALLY FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MAT-SU...HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ALOFT INITIALLY OVERSPREADS THE VERY
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOOKS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
STAY MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THIS WARM-UP LOOKS LIKE IT WON'T LAST MORE THAN A DAY...AS COLDER AIR

IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK
TO SNOW.