Gale Warning 646, NWS Anchorage, AK

942 
FZAK61 PAFC 301156
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-310300-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTH END OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 59N
146W EARLY THU MORNING AT 984 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 1005 MB
AND STALL NEAR 60N 148W BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-310300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-310300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

177 
FZAK61 PAFC 302336
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-311500-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 MB LOW AT 58N 151W WILL MOVE TO 61N 147W LATE THU MORNING AT
986 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO
1010 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-311500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-311500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

095 
FZAK61 PAFC 311144
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-010300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 983 MB LOW AT 59N 147W WILL DRIFT TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND WEAKEN TO 1004 MB BY FRI MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-010300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-010300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BERING SEA. SEVERAL STORM
SYSTEMS ARE BEING STEERED BY THIS LOW. ONE OF THESE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH ANOTHER CENTERED ON
THE TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. ANOTHER STORM THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER JAPAN WILL BECOME A FACTOR IN THE WEATHER FOR THE ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH
THE GFS BEING A SLIGHT OUTLIER REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING THIS SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY FROM A 975 MB LOW INTO A 968 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK
CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW ON THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET WITH A 140 KT CORE...AS WELL AS A
DECENT INFLUX OF WARM MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR AT LOWER AND MIDDLE
LEVELS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
THURSDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE IS ALSO
KEYING IN ON A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF SHEMYA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AT 974 MB BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN BERING BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE KODIAK LOW WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DECENT RAINS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS LOW...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
AREAS. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEYS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EAST...AND EVEN
NORTHEAST KEEPING THOSE AREAS ON THE DOWN-SLOPE SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN SETTLE IN NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON
THURSDAY THEN WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE AIR ALOFT SLOWLY COOLING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED BY MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ON THE BACK END OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER PATTEN IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLDER AIR OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEFORE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130 131 138.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 132 136 137 139 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG/TP OCT 13