Gale Warning 635, NWS Anchorage, AK

124 
FZAK62 PAFC 132322
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 13 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141500-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 993 MB LOW NEAR 57N 158W WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. A 968 MB LOW NEAR 54N 167E WEAKENS TO 988 MB
BY TUE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES TO 56N 173W. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS REACHES THE SOUTHWEST AK COAST MON
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT...EXCEPT S WIND 30 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 13 TO 17
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT S WIND 25 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 12 TO 16
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

301 
FZAK62 PAFC 141145
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 971 MB LOW NEAR 54N 172E WEAKENS TO 991 MB TUE NIGHT AS IT MOVES 
TO 59N 171W. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A KAMCHATKA PENINSULA LOW SPAWNS A 1000 MB
TRIPLE POINT LOW TUE NIGHT NEAR 52N 178E. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-150300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT S 25 TO 35 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-150300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 20 KT E OF 176W. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-150300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-150300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

019 
FZAK62 PAFC 142259
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 55N 178E WILL MOVE TO 58N 174W TUE AFTERNOON AT 
988 MB AND THEN TO 62N 172W WED AFTERNOON AT 994 MB. A 998 MB LOW
WILL FORM EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TUE MORNING AND TRACK 
TO 51N 172W WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 TO 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 TO 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...BECOMING N WIND 20 KT E OF 176W AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT S WIND 20 KT E OF 176W. SEAS 12 TO 16
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W OF 175W...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF 175W...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS ALASKA...WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY. THIS LOW IS NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE LOW
HAVE BEEN GUSTING AROUND 45 TO 55 KTS...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEY
HAVE BEEN GALE FORCE TO OCCASIONALLY MINIMAL STORM FORCE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO START OUT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE CURRENT EASTERN BERING LOW AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BARREN ISLANDS/NORTHERN GULF AREA. THE GFS IS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH NEAR KODIAK CITY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
NAM...ECMWF...AND WRF ARE ALL SHOWING THE LOW RIGHT OVER THE BARREN
ISLANDS. THE NAM IS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THIS LOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING.
WITH JET PLACEMENT IN THIS AREA...THE ECMWF TRACK SEEMS THE MOST
REALISTIC SO IT HAS BECOME THE PREFERRED MODEL TOWARD THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
AS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT...IT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN. BEFORE IT WEAKENS THOUGH...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS WELL AS THROUGH THE TYPICAL GAPS OF THE
ALASKA RANGE AND OTHER RANGES OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLAND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TO NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...THUS PRODUCING WINDS AT OR ABOVE 75 MPH
FOR WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR EASTERN TURNAGAIN
ARM OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH A STRONG WIND HEADLINE SUFFICING FOR EASTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM. A STORM FORCE BARRIER JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT SWINGS TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. WINDS WILL PEAK
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND WEAKENS.

THE NEXT LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE WESTERN BERING SEA. WITH THIS
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN...SHORT BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF THE MEAN LOW POSITION OVER THE
BERING SEA AND THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION JUST TO THE EAST OF ALASKA.
THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WARM...WET...AND POSSIBLY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119.
         GALE WARNING 120 130 131 132 139 141 150 155 160 165 170
                      171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SCHRECK