Gale Warning 632, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU OCT 10 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHED SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THERE IS A "DOUBLE BARREL" LOW WITH ONE CENTER OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND THE OTHER OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS
IS CURRENTLY MERGING WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER
TYPHOON DANA THAT IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH 84 HOURS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE STRONG STORM MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY EVENING...THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
GIVE A CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SHOWERY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WILL STALL AND BASICALLY BREAK APART OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW NEAR SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATER FRIDAY.

THE "DOUBLE BARREL" LOW AND FORMER TYPHOON DANA LOW WILL CONVERGE AT
THE UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ON THE REMNANTS OF
DANA WILL RAPIDLY SPIN UP AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...AND EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL "SETTLE IN" OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CROSS THE THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATER SUNDAY.

A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE "DANA SYSTEM" FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CREATE A FAIRLY STRONG BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING
THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. INLAND PORTIONS WILL SEE LESS
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DOWN-SLOPE EFFECTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. LOWLAND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...NOT
SNOW...ALSO DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARM AIR MASS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN WARM AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE NOT WELL PREDICTED AT THIS RANGE...THE PATTERN
CONSISTING OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER WESTERN CANADA FAVORS SYSTEMS THAT ARE
WARM...WET...AND POSSIBLY WINDY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 155 179 180.
         GALE WARNING 130 150 160 165 170 172 176 177 178 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 13