Gale Warning 623, NWS Anchorage, AK

652 
FZAK61 PAFC 021137
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-030300-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING AND
REACH THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU AFTERNOON. A 992 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEAR 55N 148W EARLY THU MORNING AND MOVE TO 58N 150W THU AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...THEN BECOME A COMPLEX LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF LATE THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-030300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-030300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

027 
FZAK61 PAFC 022350
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-031500-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND
WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE THU MORNING. A 991 MB LOW WILL
FORM NEAR 54N 148W AND MOVE TO NEAR 59N 150W AT 982 MB BY THU
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY FRI
MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S TO W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

466 
FZAK61 PAFC 031135
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 3 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-040300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF BY
LATE MORNING. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 56N 149W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 150W
AT 980 MB THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN TO 990 MB NEAR 56N 152W LATE
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FRI
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 3 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 
FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

686 
FZAK61 PAFC 040148 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 3 2013

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-041500-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 58N 151W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 142W
AT 998 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN LATE FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-041500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 3 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI...EAST WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-041500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 3 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT TUE OCT 1 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH RESULTANT
GAP WINDS AROUND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL DECREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW HINTS OF BECOMING A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTER AS THE FEATURE SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND THE WESTERN GULF. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS LARGE SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN. OUT WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MATURE LOW
IN THE 985 MB RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT STRETCHES AHEAD OF THE LOW AND IS CURRENTLY BRINGING GALE-FORCE
WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE CLOUD SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SPREADS FAR NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW...CURRENTLY SPREADING UP THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND OVER TO KODIAK
ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST DOMAIN IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD IS THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING. WHILE THE LOW IS LIKELY A BIT
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AS IT DROPS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS
EVENING AND THEN CURVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND EVOLUTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW AS THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ENTERS
THE GULF ON THURSDAY. THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TOWARD A STRONGER TRIPLE POINT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN
ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW FOCUSED IN A MUCH MORE CONCENTRIC
CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND ON
THURSDAY MORNING. THE JET REMAINS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST THAT A
ELONGATED MULTIPLE-CIRCULATION SOLUTION SEEMS THE MOST
PLAUSIBLE...AND A MIX OF THE EC AND NAM WAS USED TO TWEAK THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
COOK INLET AS THE UPPER LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND
PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...BUT WILL MAKE
FOR A GLOOMIER DAY THAN RECENT SUNNY FALL DAYS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM MOVES INTO
THE GULF. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
STORM THAT EVEN HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD
SEE RAIN...WITH A TYPICAL UPSLOPE-DOWNSLOPE PATTERN CAUSING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF PRECIP TO FALL ALONG THE COASTLINES. THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE LARGE
RAMIFICATIONS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. WILL KEEP WITH A STRONG GALE-FORCE BARRIER JET AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH A LATER UPGRADE TO STORM FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

SOUTHWEST...SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE BERING LOW WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA TO
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY OFFSHORE (NORTHERLY) FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE
PACIFIC JUST EAST OF ATKA THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM DUTCH HARBOR OVER TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS MINIMAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO BOOST WIND
SPEEDS...NORTHERLIES BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE
ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEMS CHARACTERIZED
BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION. AS THE GULF TROUGH/LOW EXIT
TO THE EAST SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW COMPLEX WILL
MOVE OUT OF ASIA AND INTO THE BERING SEA. THE FIRST MAJOR SURFACE LOW
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL INITIALLY TRACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN
BERING. THE MAIN IMPACT TO ALASKA WILL BE THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH WILL MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING FRIDAY AND
MAINLAND ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT.
THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE OVER THE BERING SEA ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW.

MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...MODELS INDICATE A SHORT-WAVE DROPPING INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH LEADING TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE (FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS) AND
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA. THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD IN THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND RIDGE...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MAJOR STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND TRACK TO EITHER SOUTHWEST ALASKA OR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
TYPICAL IMPACT OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS IN MARINE AREAS THE PRIMARY
IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS THE STORM NEARS. WARMER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD EXPECT
COLDER AIR TO AGGRESSIVELY MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 119 132 138 150 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD/SEB OCT 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1005 AM AKDT TUE OCT 1 2013

AKZ171-020000-

...MINOR ASHFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO RE-SUSPEND AND PUSH DUST AND ASH
FROM THE 1912 NOVARUPTA/KATMAI VOLCANIC ERUPTION TOWARDS KODIAK
ISLAND. AS SUCH...MINOR DUST OR ASHFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. ANY ASHFALL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A TRACE.

AMD