Gale Warning 589, NWS Anchorage, AK

453 
FZAK52 PAFC 201145
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHEAST OF KISKA WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 974
MB 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF AT 970 MB ON SAT MORNING 110 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK. A
991 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 340 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
ON SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-210300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...FROM PORT MOLLER W...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW
35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-210300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 23 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-210300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE
STATE WITH AN ANCHOR LOW REMAINING IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. A
BROAD RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN
BERING SEA WITH A STRONG 150+ KT JET STREAM FLOWING OVER THE TOP AND
TURNING SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...A LOW SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AND STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY WITH THE HELP OF A 120 KT JET STREAK COMING
UP OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION STARTING TO BECOME ELONGATED TO THE NORTH. OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT CAUSED CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS TO LINGER AROUND COOK INLET THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO BREAK OUT IN A MAJOR
WAY FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. OUT
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BERING SEA REGION...THOUGH A NEW LOW IS BEGINNING TO FORM SOUTHWEST
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE LOCKING INTO A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION FOR BOTH OF THE
STRONG STORMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW MOVING UP TOWARD THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AROUND 971 MB. WHILE ALL MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR
SOLUTION THE NAM WAS A BIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GFS/EC/GEM CONSENSUS
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WAS REMOVED FROM CONSIDERATION
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE MORE IMPACTFUL STORM FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE THE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THAT WILL
CROSS THE BERING AND REACH THE GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. HERE AGAIN
THE 12Z NAM IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER...KEEPING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
STORM ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE OTHER MODELS AND LIKELY STEMS FROM A MUCH WEAKER
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS HAVE ALL SHOWN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HERE AGAIN THE NAM WAS EXCLUDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SKIES ARE FINALLY CLEARING AROUND COOK INLET...A TREND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH COOK INLET
EARLIER IS DISSIPATING AND IS HEADED OFF TO THE EAST...THOUGH THE NEW
MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH UPPER COOK
INLET LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TOWARD MORNING. THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE
MAT-SU TO PREVENT A REPEAT OF THE SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL LIKELY
STILL HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW SOME AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW TO DEVELOP YET AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TONIGHT AS MUCH OF ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI WILL DROP
TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOCALIZED FOG THAT DEVELOPS
AROUND KNIK ARM TOWARD BUTTE TONIGHT WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THE
LIGHTEST.

SOUTHWEST...BENIGN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE STRONG BERING LOW PASSES SOUTH
OF THE MAINLAND. COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL SEE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...THOUGH PRECIP
MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO PRODUCE A BIT OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
ON SATURDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING DETAILS
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BERING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GET STRONGER AS
IT TRACKS ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF BY SATURDAY. PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE STRONGER WINDS THAN HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED IN A
WHILE...WITH THE VERY FAST STORM MOVEMENT EXAGGERATING WINDS THAT
WILL ALREADY BE STRONG ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ATKA TO DUTCH HARBOR.
WHILE THESE WINDS SHOULD NOT APPROACH WARNING LEVEL...GUSTS
APPROACHING 60 MPH LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY. VIRTUALLY ALL AREAS WILL
ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...BUT DUE
TO THE RAPID STORM MOVEMENT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MAINLAND RETROGRADING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BREAKING DOWN INTO A
MOVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SPECIFIC
FEATURES...BUT A SLIGHT WARMUP BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AS THE STORM TRACK
SHIFTS BACK TO THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 155 170 171  172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD SEP 13