Gale Warning 583, NWS Anchorage, AK

705 
FZAK52 PAFC 131145
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 999 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 130 NM SOUTH
OF SITKINAK AT 1007 MB FRI EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA ON SAT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING FRI
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING BY SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-140300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-140300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-140300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-140300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-140300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-140300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-140300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-140300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-140300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-140300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-140300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-140300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 13 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
451 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING HAS PUSHED INTO THE INTERIOR. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH
HAS BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
REGION. OVER THE BERING...THE EX-TROPICAL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING
WINDS GUSTING TO 50 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HAS OCCLUDED AND
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...LEADING
TO WARMER CLOUD TOPS AND SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY...BRINGING RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF RUSSIA HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKENS AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL ACT TO KEEP THE LOW
FROM TRACKING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. PAST 48
HOURS...THE NAM DISSIPATES THIS LOW PRESSURE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND ALSO PUSHES FURTHER EAST MORE RAPIDLY. SINCE THE GFS HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND VERIFIED WELL OVER THE PAST WEEK...HAVE
CONTINUES TO UTILIZE THE GFS IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

MODELS ALONG WITH THE ANCHORAGE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATE A MUCH MORE
STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT HAS MOVED UP COOK INLET AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
OVERNIGHT...THUS CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FARTHER INLAND THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY ALLOW FOR MARGINAL TO
LOW-END VFR CEILINGS TO RISE OR BREAK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES...LOW-LEVEL MARINE STRATUS SHOULD RETURN
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH POTENTIALLY LOW-END VFR CEILINGS
EXTENDING THROUGH ANCHORAGE INTO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING DEVELOPS IN THE LOWEST
5-6 THOUSAND FEET. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVES ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND
THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...IT
DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR ANCHORAGE TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ABOVE A TRACE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT STANDARD TIME...WHICH WOULD END
THE IMPRESSIVE STREAK OF DAYS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.

FOR FRIDAY ANCHORAGE LIES BETWEEN A SPLIT STREAM WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A LOW TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THE ACCOMPANYING DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO SET UP JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF TOWN SO THAT THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND SHOULD BE MUCH WETTER...THOUGH THERE WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH AND ALLOW FOR OFFSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE AT THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND OVER THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AHEAD OF A 986 MB LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
STRATIFIED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CAUSING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO GALE FORCE.
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AKPEN THIS EVENING...STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE UNTIL THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST QUICKLY DURING THE DAY AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET. AHEAD OF THE LOW...GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM ADAK EAST.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AND THE LOW PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

DRIER WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE GULF AND
PHASE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...THE DRY PATTERN SHOULD BE VERY
SHORT-LIVED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ALOFT WITH WEAKER SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...130 132 150 160 170 179
         STORMS...172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CASSELL/CLAY SEP 13