Gale Warning 574, NWS Anchorage, AK

185 
FZAK52 PAFC 091751 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
950 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

UPDATED ZONE 170

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 989 MB LOW 30 NM WEST OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 70 NM WEST OF KING
SALMON TUE MORNING AT 996 MB AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND. A
1003 MB LOW 441 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO 78 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WED MORNING. A 995 MB
LOW 446 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU TUE MORNING WILL MOVE TO 75 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK AT 990 MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NW 20 KT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING 25 KT IN THE EVENING...EXCEPT 15 KT E
OF 160W. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT E OF 160W. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT E OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS
9 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT E OF PORT MOLLER. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT E OF PORT MOLLER IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT E OF PORT MOLLER. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
950 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT W OF DUTCH
HARBOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING S 25 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BERING SIDE...E 25 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-100300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
445 PM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

CORRECTED TYPO

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN
FEATURES. MINOR DIFFERENCES DO OCCUR WITH THE LOW COMPLEX NEAR THE AK
PEN AND THE NEXT CENTER TO MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...HOWEVER
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING ARE SIMILAR.

.ANALYSIS...
.UPPER LEVELS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER COPPER RIVER BASIN/SUSITNA
VALLEY LIFTING NORTH. A TIGHTLY WRAPPED CENTER IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF
THE EAST ALEUTIANS WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS THE AK PEN THEN SOUTH ALONG 155W. THE THIN NOSE OF A RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING BETWEEN A WAVE OVER THE DELTA AND A
PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA.

THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR THE AK PEN DIGS AS IT PHASES
WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND COLD AIR SPILLING OUT OF
THE BERING SEA. THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE BUILDS OVER SE AK/WESTERN
CANADA. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHIFTS EAST SOME TUE AS THE LONG WAVE
MOVES OVER WESTERN AK/WESTERN GULF. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR OUT OF
EASTERN RUSSIA PHASES WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC TUE EVENING AND AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS CHANGED TO SHOWERS AND IS
LIFTING NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INTO THIS FAVORED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY COOK INLET AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. SW GALES SHOULD
END OVER THE NORTH GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND MAINLAND OVERNIGHT AND MON
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW NEAR THE AK PEN AND AS ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST. SE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. GAP FLOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FOR THE SAME TIME-FRAME ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE
VALLEY...AND OTHER FAVORED AREAS. A BARRIER JET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST MON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUE AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN TUE NIGHT.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE
NORTH GULF TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL PREVAIL
INLAND...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SPILL OVER AS THIS SYSTEM
IS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN. RAIN WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
INLAND AS THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW DIMINISHES TUE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STEADIER
RAINFALL TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS IT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INLAND. THE
LOW MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES TUE. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
STRONG GAP FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN TUE AFTERNOON.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND TUE MORNING...SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WESTERN BERING MON MORNING...GIVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY TUE MORNING...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST AS
THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. A DEEPENING SIBERIAN
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 130 132 138 140 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 13