Gale Warning 570, NWS Anchorage, AK

782 
FZAK52 PAFC 080540 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
940 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

UPDATED ZONES 172 175

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081500-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 MB LOW 190 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTH OF 
DUTCH HARBOR LATE SUN MORNING AT 986 MB THEN MOVE TO 90 NM EAST 
OF SAND POINT BY MON AFTERNOON AT 994 MB. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS 
TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING LATE SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN 
ISLANDS E...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-081500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-081500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-081500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT 
BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT PACIFIC SIDE...8 FT BERING
SIDE.. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-081500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
940 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...PACIFIC SIDE...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. BERING
SIDE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E OF ATKA...N WIND 35 KT. W OF ATKA...N WIND 25 KT. 
SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E OF ATKA...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. W OF ATKA...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
940 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...8 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING 
N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...N WIND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-081500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 


$$

PKZ179-081500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

937 
FZAK52 PAFC 081156
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI WILL MOVE TO 35 NM NORTHEAST OF
CASTLE CAPE BY MON AFTERNOON AT 995 MB...THEN MOVE INLAND LATE MON
NIGHT. A 1003 MB LOW 145 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO 80 NM EAST
OF ATTU AT 1007 MB SUN EVENING THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING LATE TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SW 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
INCREASING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT E OF PORT
MOLLER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 25 KT S OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 13
FT...EXCEPT 8 FT BERING SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 10
FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS
6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT SEP 7 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE GFS THOUGH IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE PRESSURE WITH
THE LOW CENTER HEADING TO THE E GULF TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD
SUPPORT THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE QPF PRECIPITATION PATTERN...THOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS
"BROAD BRUSH" THE VALUES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE EASTERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVELS...THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN GULF. THE
LOW OVER THE COOK INLET REGION OVERNIGHT IS MOVING NORTH AND
WEAKENING. A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF IS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTH. THE A WEAK CENTER IS LOCATED OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH A MORE
PROMINENT LOW CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN  ALEUTIANS.

THE WAVE SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT TO OVER
THE YUKON TERRITORY SUN AFTERNOON. THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY IMPACTS SE
ALASKA AND THE EASTER GULF COAST...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE WESTERN
GULF AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE UPPER CENTER OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
DRIFT NE THROUGH SUN AND UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. THE
CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES RAPIDLY EAST TO SOUTH OF THE
AK PEN LATE SUN SETTING UP BROAD SOUTHERLY TO SE FLOW OVER THE
GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA IN THE WAKE OF THIS CENTER.

.SURFACE
RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS HEAVY...IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WEAKENS AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW THROUGH SUNDAY. A
980S LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES EAST UNDER THE UPPER
CENTER TO SOUTH OF THE AK PEN SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WEAKENS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY SUN. THIS CENTER WILL BRING RENEWED
RAINS TO THE NORTH GULF AND A FRESH BATCH TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TONIGHT AND SUN. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH GULF ON SUN
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUN EVENING AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH. A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WILL BRING
GALES TO THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT. GALES WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH MON. STRONG GAPS FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED AREAS OF 101 AND 125
THROUGH MON.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...FEW AREAS OF INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WHICH CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A NEW LOW PUSHES INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING STEADIER PRECIPITATION
AND GUSTY GAP WINDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TODAY AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
STEADY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
TRACKS INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LATE IN THE WEEK THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. OVER MAINLAND ALASKA A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BRINGING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 AND 138 150 155 172 170 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC/TP SEP 13