Gale Warning 57, NWS Anchorage, AK

498 
FZAK52 PAFC 090051 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...CORRECTED
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 968 MB LOW 250 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 980 MB THU AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW 165 NM SOUTH
OF ADAK WED MORNING WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF ST PAUL AT 994
MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-091500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. FROM UNALASKA E...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT
BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-091500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

449 
FZAK52 PAFC 091214
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 MB LOW 330 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 140 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA AND STEADILY WEAKEN TO 977 MB LATE WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO
420 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN TO 986 MB BY LATE
THU NIGHT. A 994 MB LOW WILL FORM 160 NM EAST OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON
AND MAINTAIN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE
THU NIGHT. A 1000 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW 340 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY THU
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK AT 996 MB BY LATE
THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF 160W. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...S WIND 15
KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. FROM UNALASKA E...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING
TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT
BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  PACIFIC SIDE...S
WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-100300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF
RIDGING AND TROUGHS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE STATE TODAY. A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OUT OF THE YUKON INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN UP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE.
FARTHER WEST LIES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THAT TIGHTENS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. THE JET STREAM AT 250 MB IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS JAPAN AT NEARLY 190 KT AND THEN SPLITS INTO TWO WEAKER
PARTS SOUTH OF ATTU WITH THE NORTHERN LIMB EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A STRONG LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA WITH A MUCH
WEAKER LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OUT
OF THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THEN INTO THE INTERIOR OF
THE STATE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BUT ARE STRUGGLING SOME WITH THE DETAILS OF THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE
BERING SEA. THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND MODELS ALL
HAVE A COMMON TRACK AND ARE DISSIPATING IT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF MODELS LOOKS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE BEST AROUND THE LOW IN
THE BERING SEA AS IT IS THE ONLY ONE TO DETECT THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN BERING.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A ROUGH PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS BY FAR THE SLOWEST AND STRONGEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE MUCH FASTER BUT DIFFER ON TRACK
BY A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
AFTER THIS THE MODELS ACTUALLY IMPROVE AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
LOCKED ON TO A STRONG LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
LATER THIS WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST..
THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ARE OCCURRING IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL LIFT SOME AS THE FRONT IN THE BERING SEA MOVES OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION BY EARLY MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
KODIAK ISLANDS BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY OFTEN ARE. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA RIDGE IS
CAUSING SOME SNOW TO FALL IN THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE A WEAK LOW COMPLEX IN IT WITH A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. HOWEVER THE ENERGY IN THE BERING SEA WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT WILL ENTER THE BERING SEA ON
SATURDAY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 955 AND 960 MB. THIS VERY STRONG LOW WILL
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH
DUE SOUTH UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA BRISTOL BAY ON
SUNDAY...SHIFTING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY. SHOULD THIS
PATTERN VERIFY IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WINDS TO SOUTHERN
ALASKA AT TIMES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 170 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 13