Gale Warning 54, NWS Anchorage, AK

884 
FZAK51 PAFC 080637 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
935 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

UPDATED 121 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 981 MB LOW 80 NM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TO 100 NM WEST OF
HAIDA GWAII AND WEAKENS TO 1006 MB WEDNESDAY MORNING.  

$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT S OF CAPE
CLEARE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
935 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
935 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35
KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT
INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 
45 KT OUT OF BAY AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAY AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

686 
FZAK51 PAFC 081219
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL WEAKEN AND 
MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR HAIDA GWAII LATE TUE NIGHT THEN
DISSIPATE. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 
N 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
NEAR KAMISHAK BAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 8 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. W GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE 
WATERS 1 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 8 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
245 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER-LVL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS SLOWLY
RETREATING EAST. A SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
CENTERED AROUND 120 MILES EAST OF KODIAK CITY...IS FILLING...AND ALSO
DRIFTING TO THE EAST. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE LOW
BRUSH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING
FLURRIES AND CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK. COLD
ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
STRENGTHENING N TO W GAP WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND
PER SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS. A SMALL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME SNOW OVER THE SW MAINLAND.

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN
CHAIN...NESTLED IN BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND ANOTHER UPPER-LOW THAT IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A STRONG FRONT DRAPED
THROUGH THE WEST TO CENTRAL CHAIN EXTENDS BACK TO THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT 350 MILES SOUTH OF
KISKA IS DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTH WITH AN AREA OF STORM TO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE EAST...THE LOW EAST OF KODIAK CITY IS SHOWN MOVING TO AROUND
250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
ABSORBED EARLY ON WED BY A STRONGER LOW MOVING TO SW BRITISH
COLUMBIA. OFF-SHORE FLOW IN IT'S WAKE IS DEPICTED SIMILARLY...
SUGGESTING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK INTO
MID WEEK. MORE SIZABLE DIFFERENCES ARISE LATE WED INTO THU AS A
RESIDUAL SURFACE WAVE FROM THE BERING/ALEUTIANS MIGRATES TOWARDS THE
GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH SOME
ECMWF BLENDED. OVER SW AK...12Z MODEL QPF INITIALIZATION WAS POOR
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BASED ON RADAR...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND UKMET
SEEMED TO HAVE THE CLOSEST PRECIP SOLUTIONS. GFS/NAM DID HAVE SOME
MODEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THIS ZONE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH
WEAKENS THIS EVENING.

OUT WEST...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE FRONT AND
DEVELOPING LOW IMPACTING THE WESTERN CHAIN AND BERING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW IS WRAPPING NORTH QUICKLY...GIVING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS FASTEST AND ALSO STRONGEST. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SLOWEST TRACK...BUT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW TRACKS TO
THE FAR NW BERING SEA TUE AFTERNOON AT PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 970
MB...THEN PINWHEELS WEST TO REINFORCE THE INCREASINGLY COMPLEX
UPPER-LOW THAT DRIFTS CLOSER TOWARDS ATTU IN THE COMING DAYS. AS THE
RESIDUAL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING...DETAILS ON WHERE
VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY TRACK BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE. HAVE TENDED TO EMPLOY AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH SOME
GFS/ECWMF BLENDED IN TO THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL AND GULF...
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TRENDS DRIER AS NORTH TO WEST
OFF-SHORE FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. TYPICAL
AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY GAP WINDS...BUT THE DEGREE AND DURATION OF COLD
ADVECTION IS MARGINALLY WEAK IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY ENTRENCHED ARCTIC
AIR TO BLEED DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AS SUCH...GAP WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT GALE FORCE OR WEAKER. INLAND...MID AND LOW
LEVEL DRYING IN THE OFF-SHORE FLOW SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS AND LEAD
TO MORE SUNSHINE...THE CAVEAT BEING PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG
NEAR THE TURNAGAIN/KNIK ARM INLETS. MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE SW GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND ON WED
WITH MORE SNOW/RAIN.

SOUTHWEST AND AKPEN...
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SW AK TO SHEAR APART TONIGHT AS ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PREDOMINANT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION THREAT DECREASES ON TUE WITH LESS
LIFT/FORCING...BUT CHANCES OF FOG/STRATUS INCREASE FROM ACCOMPANYING
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK WEST FLOW. THE BREAK IN STEADY PRECIPITATION IS
RATHER BRIEF HOWEVER AS ENERGY FROM THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM FRONT
ADVANCES BY EARLY WED. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL REGARDING
WIND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR THE WESTERN CAPES/BRISTOL BAY ON WED DUE
TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH
THE REGION. A TREND TOWARDS STRENGTHENING WINDS TO GALES MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IF DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL CHAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SHARPLY AND TRACKS TO JUST
WEST OF ADAK. THE PEAK OF THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH FROPA BUT
REMAIN GUSTY AT SOLID GALES WELL INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO A SQUEEZED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE STRONG FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND
EASTERN CHAIN THROUGH TUE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A WARM PUSH IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT FALLING SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WET AND LESS
LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND...RETARDING BLOWING SNOW THREATS. RAIN MAY ALSO
MIX IN AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH
LATE WEEK...KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED OVER THE
BERING/CHAIN. MODELS SHOW A RATHER STRONG PACIFIC LOW TRACKING TO THE
CHAIN FRI NIGHT TO SAT REINFORCING THIS PATTERN. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND/GULF...RESIDUAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM TONIGHT'S ALEUTIAN
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE AROUND ON THU AS WEDNESDAY'S UPPER-RIDGE RETREATS
TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN AMPLIFYING FLOW BY THE
WEEKEND AND WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...AN ACTIVE PATTERN
APPEARS LIKELY EVEN FOR THE EASTERN AOR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...187
MARINE...STORM...172 175 412 413
         GALE...130 132 138 140 150 155 170 176 179 185 351 352 411
                414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY