Gale Warning 528, NWS Anchorage, AK

686 
FZAK62 PAFC 111152
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120300-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 59N 176W WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING. A 989 MB
LOW NEAR 51N 176W WILL INTENSIFY TO 983 MB AS IT MOVES TO 53N 171W
WED NIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN TO 996 MB AS IT MOVES TO 54N 160W BY
EARLY FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING
ON THU.

$$

PKZ411-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
175W...S TO E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N TO E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. N OF 57N...S TO E WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT N OF 57N. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT E OF 167W. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

524 
FZAK62 PAFC 112345
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121500-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 MB LOW AT 52N 171W WILL MOVE TO 54N 156W FRI AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN TO 1005 MB. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI.

$$

PKZ411-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE SEP 10 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. A STRONG
RIDGE IS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A FAIRLY STRONG JET (120 KTS)
BETWEEN THE BERING LOW AND B.C. HIGH IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 84 HOURS.
THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AND FINALLY EXIT INTO EAST CENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY...BASICALLY
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA IS THE ONE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. INITIAL FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND WINDS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL REACH KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BY FRIDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH THE B.C. RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND IT WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. THE WEEKEND MAY ACTUALLY BE DRY AS
THE LOW BECOMES ALMOST CUT OFF FROM THE STORM TRACK AND AND DRIFTS
SOUTH...ALLOWING THE BERING RIDGE TO NOSE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO LINGER
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH WED MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE AREA. RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
ALEUTIAN LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY EARLY WED
MORNING...TEMPORARILY ENDING SHOWERS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A NORTH PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GIVEN THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...BRINGING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH STEADY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WED MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172.
         GALE WARNING 150 155 160 165 170 171 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG/PEPE SEP 13