Gale Warning 508, NWS Anchorage, AK

801 
FZAK51 PAFC 291159
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300300-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO AROUND 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AT 994 MB LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING 
AWAY INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC ON FRI. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GULF FRI INTO SAT.
$$

PKZ120-300300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER 
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-300300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-300300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-300300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-300300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-300300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EARLY MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-300300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT BY AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-300300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-300300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT BY AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-300300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT 
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT BY AFTERNOON. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT THIS MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-300300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT 
BY LATE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED AUG 28 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA PHASING WITH A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THIS IS SPINNING UP A FAIRLY
STRONG SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE BERING SEA AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A DEEP UPPER LOW
(519 DM AT 500 MB) IS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF A LOW IN THE GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK
WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...GEM ARE CLUSTERED IN A MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITION. THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE PHASING LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA NEAR THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES. THE SURFACE LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM NEVER BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED AS THE UPPER LOW RAPIDLY SLIDES SOUTH. THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING...WEST OF IT
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH OF IT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BE PUSHED INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE KAMCHATKA LOW MOVING EAST AND SPREADING
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA ON SATURDAY...PUSHING THE RIDGE EAST AND SLOWLY FLATTENING
IT. THE CHUKCHI SEA LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
ALASKA EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN ALASKA INTO FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BY SATURDAY...AND COMPLETELY SQUASH THE RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 125 130 132 138 150 155 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG AUG 13