Gale Warning 498, NWS Anchorage, AK

329 
FZAK51 PAFC 172343
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES TO 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY 
AT 998 MB SUN MORNING...THEN DIMINISHES SUN NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-181500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-181500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-181500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BECOME TO DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE NORTH
PACIFIC. SHORTWAVES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS LOW ARE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE GULF COAST...AND MORE RECENTLY INTO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THESE SHORTWAVES AND WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SOME NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN INTERIOR TO THE YUKON TERRITORY.
OUT WEST...EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY MOVING RAIN SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND EASTERN BERING SEA. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN THE CENTRAL BERING...WHERE AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ARE
CONTINUING TO FORM.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING...THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE NAM WERE MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH THE
LOW...BRINGING IT NEAR KODIAK ISLAND...WHILE THE 6Z RUN IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS/EC/GEM LOCATION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. BECAUSE OF
THIS RECENT AGREEMENT...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEAK
BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE.
OTHERWISE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOCATING RAINFALL OVER
LAND THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES OFF TO THE EAST.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE DESCENDING ARCTIC TROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT THEN STRUGGLE WITH THIS
TROUGH INTO TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF. THE GFS/EC/GEM ALL
CREATE A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWEST GULF EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER BY KEEPING IT TOGETHER AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DISAGREEMENT WILL IMPACT
PRIMARILY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL FALL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...NOW THAT THE WEAK DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHUGACH
YESTERDAY EVENING HAS ENDED...RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY TO WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THE RAIN HAS ALSO
MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY THAT PATCHY FOG IS
BEGINNING TO FORM THROUGHOUT THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE RAINFALL
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF. RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA HOWEVER
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ...WHILE THE GULF COAST WILL REMAIN
WET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL BE UNDER
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN TODAY...UNTIL WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES
INTO THE BASIN LATE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS END.
THERE ALSO IS A POTENTIAL THAT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BASIN WILL SPREAD TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WETTING RAINS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY DRY THIS SUMMER.

SOUTHWEST...THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL EXPERIENCE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT
THIS EVENING. THIS CLEARING HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK
LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTON SOUND TOMORROW EVENING. THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY IS ALSO UNDER THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN TODAY IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE IF ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER
THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENCOURAGING CLEARING TREND...WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THINKING IN THIS REGION SINCE YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT
TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE BERING
SEA...ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS FROM THE
WEST TODAY. RAIN WILL LINGER ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE ARCTIC TROUGH AS
IT DIGS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED TOWARDS MID WEEK...WHEN THE EC QUICKLY MOVES THE PRIMARY
UPPER LOW INTO CANADA...WHILE THE GFS/GEM STALLS IT OUT OVER
INTERIOR. IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTH MAINLAND IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER IT IS TOO TELL EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THIS RAIN WILL
FALL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

KOCHEVAR AUG 13