Gale Warning 497, NWS Anchorage, AK

761 
FZAK52 PAFC 130551 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
951 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

UPDATED ZONE 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131500-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 988 MB LOW 140 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 320 NM NORTH OF
ADAK AT 983 MB TUE MORNING AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-131500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-131500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 12 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-131500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W OF 160W...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. E OF 160W...SE WIND 15
KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W OF 160W...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. E OF 160W...SE
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-131500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF PORT MOLLER...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. E OF PORT MOLLER...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-131500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-131500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...8 FT BERING SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
PACIFIC SIDE...7 FT BERING SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT PACIFIC SIDE...7 FT BERING
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-131500-
UNALASKA BAY
951 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUST TO
45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-131500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT PACIFIC SIDE...8 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-131500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-131500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-131500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-131500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
705 AM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED ITS POSITION WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AS THE ORIGINAL PARENT LOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. TWO OTHER DISTINCT LOW CENTERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE BERING ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH ONE NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE
OTHER CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SOUTHERN BERING TO THE WEST OF ADAK. AN
ASSOCIATED LARGE SUB 990 MB SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING GALE FORCE
FRONT ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO ENCROACH UPON THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
WILL SPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TODAY AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
RAIN FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU
VALLEY AS A SURFACE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER IN TRYING TO
BRING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON TUESDAY
TOO FAR TO THE EAST. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE ALEUTIANS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC LATER IN THE
WEEK...POTENTIALLY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO SOUTHCENTRAL AK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AK BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND THE
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THE
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION AND WEAK
SEA BREEZES TO BECOME REESTABLISHED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE AS WEAK TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BERING SEA LOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH...AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
BERING FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE PRIBILOFS AS THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACK NORTH AND EASTWARD
INTO THE BERING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AKPEN.
HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BUT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE INTERIOR. OVERALL THIS WILL ALLOW THE
MAINLAND TO GET BACK INTO SOME DRIER WEATHER WITH A RETURN OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. A RETURN
TO CALMER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY ALSO MEAN FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 165 170 172 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB AUG 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1132 AM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013

AKZ181-130110-

...MINOR ASH FALL POSSIBLE NEAR PORT MOLLER AND NELSON LAGOON AND
BEAR RIVER...

WEB CAMERAS AND ALASKA VOLCANIC OBSERVATORY INDICATE THAT VENIAMINOF
VOLCANO HAS ERUPTED. WINDS WILL TRANSPORT THE ASH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY LIGHT ASHFALL TO PORT MOLLER AND NELSON
LAGOON AND BEAR RIVER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOOON HOURS.