Gale Warning 47, NWS Anchorage, AK

206 
FZAK51 PAFC 051247
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WEAKEN SAT AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW WILL 
MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND LATE SAT MORNING THEN MOVE TO 100 NM WEST 
OF KODIAK CITY LATE SAT EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A TROUGH OF 
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH 
LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
KAMISHAK BAY...NORTHEAST WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE 
WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SNOW AND RAIN.  
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

189 
FZAK51 PAFC 060037
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 MB LOW OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL DISSIPATE SAT EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 125 NM NE OF KODIAK
CITY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-061500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALONG
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-061500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-061500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-061500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-061500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...WIND BECOMING NW BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING TO NW 25 
KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-061500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-061500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 15 KT DURING THE
EVENING.  SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-061500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-061500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA...WHICH IS
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS A LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA...NEAR 50N...THAT HAS BOTTOMED OUT AND BEGUN TO
WEAKEN. A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW
EARLIER TO THE AREA IS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTH...WITH A
LITTLE SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. FURTHER WEST...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY WEAK LOW WITH MULTIPLE
CIRCULATION CENTERS IS CROSSING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS STRETCHING OUT ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND
WEAKENING AS THE JET CARRIES IT RAPIDLY TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
A SHORT BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS
DROPPED SOME SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...WHICH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND PRIBILOFS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE MAJOR
FEATURES...BUT DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS.
THE GENERAL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE JET STREAM STAYING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...THIS HAS LED TO FREQUENT TRIPLE-POINT LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LAST 10 DAYS...A TREND WHICH WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL. THE FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ARISES WITH THE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF HAD BEEN TRYING TO CARRY THE ENERGY WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND
OUT INTO THE GULF. THE GFS IS HUGGING THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WHILE
THE NAM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE A BIT AND TAKES THE LOW NORTHWARD JUST
TO THE EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE 12Z EC TRENDED STRONGLY BACK TOWARD
THE NAM SOLUTION...AND THUS A FORECAST TRACK IN LINE WITH THE NAM/EC
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. BY SUNDAY...THE LARGE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE WESTERN BERING MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THE NUMBER AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOWS...SO WILL OPT FOR
A CONTINUED BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST THAT DOES NOT
ATTEMPT TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MAINLAND...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MAINLAND TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING BERING SEA FRONT. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
NOT BE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ALONG THE DELTA COAST TONIGHT. SIMILARLY...THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING
SLOW ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO ACCUMULATE OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY
SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE
KENAI PENINSULA. MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE DOWNSLOPED ONCE AGAIN
FOR THIS STORM...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW TO
THE KENAI MOUNTAINS AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSETTLED BUT RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT ARE AT GALE-FORCE...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...WITH SO MANY WEAK SURFACE LOWS
ROTATING AROUND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...MANY OF THE FINER
DETAILS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MORE THAN 12 HOURS IN ADVANCE.
WEATHER ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE DECAYING FRONT MOVES IN...AND WILL BECOME SHOWERY LATER THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW STARTS TO FORM NEAR THE ISLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS
AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE BERING FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO AGREE ON A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. IF THIS HAPPENS...IT WOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COMPLEX LOW THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTING OVER THE BERING SEA FOR MORE
THAN A WEEK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING THIS PATTERN OF NUMEROUS WEAK SURFACE LOWS INTO THE
GULF REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MOST OF THE
RAIN/SNOW TO THE COASTLINES...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INLAND.
AS THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES A MORE MORE NORTHWESTERLY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL TOWARD MORE NORMAL VALUES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 150 155 160 170 172 175 176 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 13