Gale Warning 455, NWS Anchorage, AK

926 
FZAK51 PAFC 171133
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-180300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-180300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-180300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ136-180300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ137-180300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 5
FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 17 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE JUL 16 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STACKED LOW IS OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE BERING SEA. RIDGE IS OVER THE MAINLAND BUT GETTING
KNOCKED DOWN FROM LAST WEEKS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. THIS IS DUE TO A
MODERATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH A 120 KT JET CORE PUSHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING AND ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. NESDIS QPE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH THE WAVE. RADAR IMAGERY IS STARTING TO CAPTURE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP HITTING THE TOGIAK AREA. OVERALL...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DISPLAYS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE TROUGH
AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING OCCURRED BEHIND THIS
FEATURE FOR STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY HANDLING THE PLETHORA OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AND THE TRANSITION OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE WELL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE OPEN WAVE IS A RESULT OF THE POLAR VORTEX
SWITCHING INTO OUR HEMISPHERE THURSDAY. THE FORMER CLOSED LOW WILL
SWING AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT IS
ANTICIPATED TO CLOSE AGAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY.

THE STRUCTURE OF THE JET LEVEL WINDS ARE SIMILAR AS WELL WITH THE
TRANSITION. THEREFORE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BE PRETTY CONSTANT OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING. NOT UNTIL THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE MAINLAND FRIDAY...WILL CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE A
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE MOST DOMINANT FEATURE IS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS
THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS FROM THE BERING AND CLOSES OVER THE
PANHANDLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...A NORTHERN GULF LOW DEVELOPS FOR SOME
GAPS FLOWS WITH RAINFALL.

CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH AT THIS POINT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF
MORE STEADY RAIN IS THE QUESTION...NOT WHETHER IT WILL RAIN OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND LATER THIS WEEK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.

IN THE MEANTIME...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY FROM THE REMNANTS OF A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTERACTING WITH THE TROUGH IN THE BERING. THIS LOW HANGS OUT IN
ROUGHLY THE SAME POSITION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. WITH
THE CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND NO REAL DRYING
EXPECTED...SHOWERS AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THE ONLY AREA OUT OF THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS THE KODIAK AREA IN A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. CHANCES INCREASE FOR RAINFALL WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE MAINLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL START
THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN ALASKA IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
THE FIRST WAVE THIS EVENING...SOME MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE AKPEN THIS EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO FOG AND STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP. THE LOW THAT MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
BRING MODERATE WINDS AND PRECIP TO THAT AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSAGE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS PUSH POLAR VORTEX TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND A RESULTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ULTIMATELY...A RIDGE WILL
RETURN TO THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NELSON JUL 13