Gale Warning 451, NWS Anchorage, AK

903 
FZAK52 PAFC 011158
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020300-
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 130 NM WEST OF MEKORYUK WILL MOVE TO NEAR GAMBELL AS IT
WEAKENS TO 998 MB TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT BY LATE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-020300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-020300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   

$$

PKZ180-020300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT FROM SHEMYA W IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-020300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 1 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 30 KT NEAR SAINT GEORGE. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ARE CONFINED TO THE
FAR EASTERN INTERIOR...AS MOST OF THE MAINLAND HAS NOW COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LARGE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND COOK INLET AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND IS NOW BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING
SKIES TODAY BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TOMORROW. OUT WEST...THE INITIAL
WEATHER FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND COAST HAS
WEAKENED AND PUSHED INLAND. FURTHER WEST...A ROBUST 160 KT JET STREAK
SUPPORTING THE UPPER LOW HAS HELPED TO FORM A SECONDARY FRONT IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THAT IS PREPARING TO MOVE INLAND AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND TO THE MAINLAND. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN INTACT
LONGER AND WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN ADDITION TO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL STALL AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY-STATE PATTERN FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD THAT FEATURES
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PINWHEELING AROUND THE PARENT LOW. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA TO EXPERIENCE CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERTAKING KODIAK
ISLAND...AND WILL MOVE UP THE KENAI PENINSULA OVERNIGHT BEFORE
REACHING ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU MONDAY MORNING. A GENERALLY
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION TO THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WINDS IN
TURNAGAIN ARM TO CURVE INTO SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. ALL MODELS SUGGEST A PERIOD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR LOWER COOK INLET AND MOVE
NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO END
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ANCHORAGE BRIEFLY...BEFORE RESUMING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH.
THIS SAME SMALL FEATURE WILL LIKELY ALSO ENABLE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE
DRYING IN THE USUAL AREAS (WESTERN KENAI UP THROUGH ANCHORAGE TO THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY) ON MONDAY BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN RESUMES WITH
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING. FURTHER EAST...THE FRONT
CRAWLING EASTWARD WILL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO PARTS
OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THUS HAVE EXTENDED
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS JUST NOW
PUSHING ONSHORE THE DELTA COAST. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
VIRTUALLY ALL PARTS OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WIND AND RAIN TO BOTH THE COASTLINES AND LOCATIONS INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE MAINLAND
MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW EXPERIENCING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ITSELF...CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL
REMAIN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. FOR ALASKA...THIS MEANS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING
THE SAME PERIOD. THUS EXPECT COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
PARTS OF THE STATE TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK...WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 170 172 179
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141

DIXON JUN 13