Gale Warning 449, NWS Anchorage, AK

021 
FZAK52 PAFC 300401 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
800 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

UPDATED ZONES 155 165

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301500-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 MB LOW 60 NM EAST OF SHEMYA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 987 MB 210 NM
NORTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND COAST LATE TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
800 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN...E OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-301500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
745 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF 160W...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. W OF 160W...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E OF 160W...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. W OF 160W...S WIND
15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-301500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
800 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES TO 45 KT...DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E OF PORT MOLLER...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS
5 FT. W OF PORT MOLLER...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT E OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-301500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...BERING SIDE...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDDAY. 
PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-301500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S
WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT BERING
SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 30 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT
BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E OF SHEMYA...W WIND 35 KT. W OF SHEMYA...W WIND 30 KT
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-301500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-301500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

943 
FZAK52 PAFC 301209 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

CORRECTED ZONE 195

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 245 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NORTHWEST
OF MEKORYUK AS IT WEAKENS TO 990 MB MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF 160W. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT
E OF 160W. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W
OF COLD BAY. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 12 FT
EXCEPT 7 FT E OF PORT MOLLER. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
W OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF
AMCHITKA PASS. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
SHEMYA W. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM SHEMYA
W. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 10 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT FROM SHEMYA W. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLANDS. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT SAT JUN 29 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A PATTERN-CHANGING STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA THE OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS CONTROLLED THE WEATHER
OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS BEING FORCED
EASTWARD INTO CANADA. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FORMED THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND DOWN
TOWARD CORDOVA...BUT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR IS CONTINUING TO BE PUSHED
EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND COOK INLET AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING IS HAVING A HARD TIME BURNING OFF TODAY
DUE TO CONTINUING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK NATURE OF THE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. OUT WEST...A MODERATE STRENGTH FRONT IS MAKING
LANDFALL ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE USHERING A MUCH MOISTER AIRMASS TOWARD THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
ONGOING PATTERN CHANGE. THERE IS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW
SIGNIFICANT A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND MON AFTERNOON. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE
CANADIAN GEM ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK CIRCULATION. THE ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN DOWNPLAYING THIS FEATURE...AND IS
GENERALLY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION TODAY. THE REASON THIS FEATURE IS
IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE IF A LOW FORMS IT WILL CHANGE THE ORIENTATION OF
THE FRONT SUCH THAT INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL LIKE ANCHORAGE WOULD
GET MUCH LESS RAINFALL DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. AT THIS TIME...THINK
ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU WILL GET RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE WEAK
DOWNSLOPING DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ALONG
COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS COOK INLET THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE
TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DOWNWARD MOTION BUILDING IN
AHEAD OF THE BERING STORM. PERIODS OF SUN TOMORROW MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN REACHING
KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...A FEW SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW DIURNAL SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE THERMAL TROUGH RETREAT
EASTWARD TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...STEADY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE
DELTA COAST...AND WILL BE PUSHING INLAND AS WELL AS INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY ZONE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH
TO BRING VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ONGOING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...AFOREMENTIONED BERING LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHERN BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING AND
RE-CURVING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HELP MIX
UP THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS THAT HAS LED TO
ONGOING PROBLEMS WITH MARINE FOG AND STRATUS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN MUCH COOLER AND CLOUDIER THAN
THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 160 165 170 172 175 176 180
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH 141

DIXON JUN 13