Gale Warning 432, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 5 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TODAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WEAKENING AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS NOT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH THE JET STREAM
SOUTH OF THAT. THE JET STREAM HOWEVER IS STRENGTHENING THE LARGE
SURFACE LOW THAT IS ALSO WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LOW
CENTER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GULF BUT THE LOW WILL BRING SOME
STRONGER WINDS AND SOME RAIN TO THE GULF COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS BLOCKING THE FORWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TOWARD THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT CREEPS IN AS A LOW
IN EASTERN RUSSIA BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE BERING SEA HIGH. THE GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE
WAY THIS SITUATION RESOLVES WILL MAKE A BIG IMPACT FOR THE FORECASTS
IN THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS POP UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR THAT WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS UNDER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIMIT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BUT THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL SEE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW EVENING WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OR CAUSE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PATTERN THAT SETTLES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST THIS
WILL KEEP SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PLENTY OF SUNNY BREAKS.
OVER THE BERING SEA THERE WILL STILL BE LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION MAY SEE A LOT OF SUNNY SKIES AS NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT KODIAK AND THE GULF BEYOND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 13