Gale Warning 427, NWS Anchorage, AK

257 
FZAK52 PAFC 012304
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021500-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.
A 997 MB LOW 470 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH
OF CHIGNIK BY MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-021500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-021500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. WIDESPREAD FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-021500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KTS. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY  FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-021500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-021500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
DENSE FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-021500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL ALASKA WITH A THERMAL LOW AT THE
SURFACE. THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES WEST INTO THE BERING SEA AND
EASTWARD INTO CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WEATHER SITUATION AND
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
THERE IS A PREFERENCE TOWARD THE NAM EARLY ON...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE CENTRAL ALASKA RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY
WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL TAKE MOVE MORE
AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY AS THE CENTRAL ALASKA RIDGE
WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO SPLIT.

THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION TO A
COOLER AND MOISTER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ALONG THE MAIN TRANSITION
FROM ANTICYCLONIC TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY EASTWARD ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE WRANGLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY THE STABLE AIR WILL
HAVE WORKED ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING THE CHANCES OF THUNDER
TO AN END.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 145.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAY 13