Gale Warning 413, NWS Anchorage, AK

681 
FZAK51 PAFC 262317
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271500-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A LOW COMPLEX 250 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 
$$

PKZ120-271500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT
EXCEPT 4 FT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT
EXCEPT 4 FT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT W 10 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS
7 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-271500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-271500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ126-271500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT OR LESS IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-271500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-271500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-271500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-271500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 7
FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 8 FT
EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT LESS THAN 10 KT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT . 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-271500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 8 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-271500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-271500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-271500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-271500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ141-271500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS IN GENERAL WERE REASONABLE. THE MOST GLARING
ISSUE IS THAT A LOW 990'S LOW CENTER NEAR NIKOLSKI IS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AT 18Z THEN THE 12Z MODEL PROJECTIONS. OVERALL SYNOPTIC
FORECAST TRENDS AND GENERAL PLACEMENT OF RIDGES AND TROUGHS ARE
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AND REASONABLE. THE TIMING OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THE NAM HAS A SLOWER
MOVEMENT AND IS PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING OUT
OF WESTERN CANADA. HOWEVER THE QPF PATTERNS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THOUGH THE NAM BRINGS A LITTLE MORE QPF INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
SUN.

.UPPER LEVELS...
A CUT-OFF LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVES NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE GULF SUN AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS AN OPEN WAVE
MON. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TO A SECONDARY CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH MON.
THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS WARM AIR SPREADS WEST FROM CANADA.

SURFACE...
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT TO NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST SUN
AND MON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS THE NORTHERN GULF. OUT
WEST...A LOW CENTER NEAR NIKOLSKI WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SW OF THE
PRIBILOFS SUN AND MON. THE TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS
THE AK PEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL HELP PUSH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG INTO COOK INLET TONIGHT. THE
STRATUS SOME BREAK UP SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON. A EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF SUN AND BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN...PROBABLY MORE SHOWERY INLAND. A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL SUN
NIGHT...THOUGH THE NORTH GULF AND KODIAK WILL LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF
IT. RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ON MON. CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER/ALASKA RANGE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
INTENSIFIES.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE
COULD KICK OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SW
ALASKA SUN. CHANCES LOOK EVEN BETTER FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION MON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH INTENSIFIES.

.AK PEN...
RAIN...THOUGH A LITTLE LIGHTER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH MON AS THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL CREATE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WEST WILL BE DRY..BUT SW AK WILL HAVE SHOWERS BY MID WEEK AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THESE WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH ZONE 141.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

RMC MAY 13