Gale Warning 394, NWS Anchorage, AK

264 
FZAK51 PAFC 041201
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD MOVES INLAND BY SAT AFTERNOON 40
NM EAST OF WHITTIER. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ126-050300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ127-050300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ128-050300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ136-050300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ137-050300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
140 PM AKDT FRI MAY 3 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA...WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 130+ KT JET
STREAM EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND IS BRINGING DEEP-LAYER MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
PLUME OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS JET
STREAM BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THE NORTH GULF COAST...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER PRECIP ALSO STRETCHING
BACK INTO COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY. PRECIPITATION IS FALLING
MOSTLY AS RAIN AT SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALDEZ
WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THROUGH COLD AIR TRAPPED AT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN GENERAL...SNOW LEVELS ARE
AROUND 2000 FT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IMMEDIATELY AMONG THE MAJOR MODEL
GUIDANCE TODAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND MOVES TO THE
EAST. THE NAM WEAKENS AND MOVES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IF THIS HAPPENED...IT WOULD KEEP THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND STEADY RAIN FROM CROSSING BACK INTO THE KENAI ANCHORAGE
AND MAT-SU AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM DID
NOT INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
COMBINED WITH GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS FOR THE MORE WESTWARD
SOLUTION...THE NAM WAS LARGELY TOSSED OUT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-FOLD...HOW
FAR WEST THE PRECIP SPREADS LATE TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION-TYPE
ACROSS THE REGION. LOCATIONS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND POINTS
EAST ARE LIKELY TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2+ INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
BEFORE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THOMPSON PASS AS WELL AS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE LARGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER THE COLD
AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN TIME TOMORROW TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT
SOME SNOWFLAKES WILL BE MIXING IN DURING THE DAY...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AND LIMITED LARGELY TO THE ANCHORAGE
HILLSIDE.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND BERING SEA REGION...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN COMMAND OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WIDESPREAD MARINE
STRATUS IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SO
FAR INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH THAT FOG HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH OF AN ISSUE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL LINGER AROUND THE
WESTERN BERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK TO MORE TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC...WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CREEP INTO MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD MAY 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1206 PM AKDT FRI MAY 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     SNOW             6 WSW TALKEETNA         62.31N 150.26W
05/03/2013  M3.8 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KUTZ