Gale Warning 376, NWS Anchorage, AK

361 
FZAK52 PAFC 232254
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241500-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-241500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT NE 25 KT NEAR SHELIKOF STRAIT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-241500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-241500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-241500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-241500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-241500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-241500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-241500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-241500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-241500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-241500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-241500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 23 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT MON APR 22 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS. FORECASTS
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NAM DUE TO ITS BETTER DEPICTION OF SMALL SCALE
FEATURES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ROUGHLY NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALASKA. THERE IS ANOTHER AND MUCH STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA. THERE IS A LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARDS SOUTHERN ALASKA. WEAK
"TROUGHINESS" ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WEAKLY ATTACHES THIS
LOW TO A SHORT WAVE LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT (EXCEPT THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...WHICH WILL REMAIN DRY) AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SNOW...BUT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. ONLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS FAR INLAND WILL
STAY SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. THE BERING STRAIT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION EAST AS
WELL...ENDING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND NORTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL (MAINLY INLAND). IT WILL ALSO BRING IN
COLDER AIR ALOFT.

FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL CHANGE IN ORIENTATION AND
CHARACTER. CURRENTLY THE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS
BLOCKING ALL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE DATELINE FROM THE BERING SEA
SOUTH. AS A TROUGH TO THE WEST PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE IT WILL BEGIN
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COMPLETELY PUSH UNDER
IT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME EAST/WEST
ORIENTED AND FORM A REX BLOCK (CLOSED HIGH NORTH OF A CLOSED LOW)
WHICH IS VERY STABLE...AND WILL HELP PUSH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 138 150 155 170 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG APR 13