Gale Warning 339, NWS Anchorage, AK

847 
FZAK62 PAFC 301140
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010300-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL FORM NEAR 49N 167W AT 998 MB THIS MORNING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

$$

PKZ411-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

500 
FZAK62 PAFC 302300
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011500-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THU. A 990 MB COMPLEX LOW NEAR 47N 171W WILL WEAKEN TO 1006
MB NEAR 50N 160W THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE ICE EDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 30 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 TO 13 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 TO 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$
TP

630 
FZAK62 PAFC 011149
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020300-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS SPAWNS A 1002 MB LOW THU MORNING NEAR 51N 162W. THIS LOW
WEAKENS TO 1008 MB THU NIGHT NEAR 59N 152W.

$$

PKZ411-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 TO 13 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 TO 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

691 
FZAK62 PAFC 012257
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE EVENING. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF 175W. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 1 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 TO 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$
TP

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
105 PM AKDT MON APR 29 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A POLAR VORTEX REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH A STEADY SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR WESTERN ALASKA. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT-WAVE FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BUT SO
FAR THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. THE AIR
MASS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS QUITE DRY AS SEEN IN AREA
SOUNDINGS (MCGRATH/KING SALMON/ANCHORAGE). THUS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. SINCE THE
SHORT-WAVE IS NOT THAT STRONG TO BEGIN WITH...ANY SNOW THAT DOES
REACH THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE A REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE TO THE WEST WITH A CLOSED HIGH
OVER THE BERING SEA AND A MULTI-CENTERED CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD RUSSIA ALLOWING THE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW TO PUSH
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. THE BERING SEA...ALEUTIANS...AND
SOUTHWEST COAST ARE MOSTLY COVERED IN STRATUS THANKS TO A STEEP
LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE INVERSION IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO FOG OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS APPEAR TOO HIGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THEY INDICATE THERE SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION WHEN
IN FACT OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRIMARILY CIRRUS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY). MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAST IN LOWERING
CEILINGS AND BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WHEN THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS
IS AS DRY AS IT IS THIS MORNING. WILL FACTOR THIS INTO THE NEW
FORECASTS.

BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH COMPLEX SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODEL ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF A LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO FORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DEFINITIVE TREND
TOWARD A MORE EASTWARD TRACK IN RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEMGLB/NAM
ARE ALL GROUPED TOGETHER WITH THE EASTERN-MOST TRACK AND WILL BE
USED IN THE LATEST FORECAST.

LASTLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SEEMS TO KEEP
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH. WILL TREND TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AS
INDICATED BY A MAJORITY OF MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BASED ON THE LITTLE SNOW BEING OBSERVED WITH
THE NORTHWEST ALASKA SHORT-WAVE AND THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE) EXPECT SNOW TO INITIALLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE FIRST SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS MAY HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH SO THAT WHEN THE
SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF REACHING
THE GROUND OVER THE LOW-LANDS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE MAY WARM UP JUST ENOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A MIX
WITH RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT SEA LEVEL. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION AS YOU GO UP IN ELEVATION. THE ONE BIG
UNCERTAINTY IN ALL OF THIS IS EXACTLY WHEN THE AIR MASS BECOMES
SATURATED FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. IF IT OCCURS EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED THEN THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE SNOWIER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH WILL BE THE LOW CROSSING THE
GULF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE EASTWARD TREND
IN THIS TRACK MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE ITS LOOKING
DRIER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE EASTERN COPPER
BASIN. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSS THE GULF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN GULF BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE A COUPLE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE AND VORTICITY
MAXIMUM MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION TO RECEIVE MUCH PRECIP. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A SEEDER
-FEEDER MECHANISM COULD BE INITIATED...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
OUT OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AND GENERATING PRECIP WHEN THEY FALL
INTO THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ANY CASE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEY. STRATUS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER
WESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...STRONGER WINDS AND PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD TO THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STORMS PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN BERING MID WEEK WILL THEN PUSH EVERYTHING BACK SOUTHWARD.
ACCOMPANYING COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
MID WEEK...PRIMARILY FROM THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TROUGH WHICH DIGS DOWN ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN BERING MID WEEK WILL BECOME SETTLE OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND. THERE IS MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH THE TRACK OF STORM SYSTEMS UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
LOWS TRACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL OR MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
FROM THE LOW CENTER EASTWARD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT
THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME IMPACT FROM THESE SYSTEMS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL...NAMELY EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THE COPPER BASIN. THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS LOOK TO REMAIN QUIET
AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS OFF AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...170 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 13