Gale Warning 334, NWS Anchorage, AK

889 
FZAK62 PAFC 132344
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 13 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141500-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD
THE BERING STRAIT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 13 2013

.TONIGHT...S OF 56N...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. N OF
56N...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 20 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO
9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 13 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 13 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 13 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 10 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF 57N. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 12 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA REGION
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM ENCOMPASSING THE ALASKA MAINLAND. AN
UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...WITH ANOTHER
WELL-DEFINED STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA DIVING SOUTH AND
EAST TOWARDS THE MAINLAND. IN BETWEEN LIES A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CREST OF THIS FEATURE OVER INTERIOR WESTERN ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FEATURE
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE COASTLINE AWAY FROM OUR AREA...AND ARE DOING
WELL IN HANDLING THE FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE
OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DISAGREED ON THE
SPEED WITH WHICH CHUKCHI SEA LOW WILL DROP INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
FROM THE NORTH THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST RUNS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...INCREASING
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

ONLY MAJOR CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS
AT WHITTIER...SEWARD...THOMPSON PASS INTO VALDEZ...AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. WINDS ARE STRONGEST THROUGH THOMPSON PASS WITH
TRANSPORTABLE SNOW MAKING FOR CONTINUED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
THERE. WILL EXTEND THE WARNING TO 7 PM THIS EVENING...BUT STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY GRADUAL DIMINISHING.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE WIND WILL HAVE BLOWN ALL OF THE
TRANSPORTABLE SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
WITH SOME CLOUDS APPROACHING AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY OR MONDAY WILL HAVE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO GENERATE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS...GENERALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

SOUTHWEST...

A VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS REGION WITH A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEKEND...THOUGH STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL
ESPECIALLY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

STRATUS DOMINATES THE CENTRAL BERING SEA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS A FRONT PIVOTS WELL SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS IN AN ATTEMPT TO BUDGE THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING.

OTHERWISE...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER THE AKPEN AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT AS FLOW SLOWLY BACKS TO EASTERLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER
LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE SLOWLY FILLING OVER THE
MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MAINLAND WILL BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO DIURNAL ACTIVITY AND MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW.

OUT WEST...RIDGING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST WITH A EAST-WEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FOR THE ALEUTIANS NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...131
MARINE...GALES...130 176
         HVY FRZG SPRY...121 127 129 130 138 150 160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 APR 13