Gale Warning 320, NWS Anchorage, AK

888 
FZAK51 PAFC 282354
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 PM AKDT THU MAR 28 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291200-
354 PM AKDT THU MAR 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF FRI EVENING. A 1013 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 120 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI NIGHT AND MOVE TO 35 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA AT
1018 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-291200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 30 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291200-
RESURRECTION BAY
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-291200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ126-291200-
PORT VALDEZ
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-291200-
VALDEZ NARROWS
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-291200-
VALDEZ ARM
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-291200-
PASSAGE CANAL
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-291200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING SW 25 KT
BY MIDNIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-291200-
CHINIAK BAY
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-291200-
MARMOT BAY
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ138-291200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT BECOMING SW
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-291200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291200-
KACHEMAK BAY
354 PM ADT THU MAR 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED MAR 27 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. THOUGH THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONTAL TROUGH IMPACTING SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GFS/NAM BLEND WILL BE USED IN PART FOR
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.UPPER LEVELS...
500 MB...THE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE MAINLAND
THURSDAY. THE LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES EAST TO NEAR THE
WESTERN AK PEN FRI. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BROADENS
NORTH AS A SECONDARY CENTER FORMS NEAR THE SEWARD PEN. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRI NIGHT. THE
RIDGE IS PINCHED SOME ON SAT AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WHICH BROUGHT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
AND ALLOWED RADIATIVE COOLING IS STARTING TO SLIP EAST WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WEST. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WERE
EVIDENT ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES OF SW ALASKA THIS MORNING AND SNOW
WAS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOST EASTWARD AND IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON THU AND
FRI. THE 970S MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BAND IS LOCATED NEAR
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND IS STACKED WITH THE UPPER CENTER. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK EAST UNDER THE UPPER CENTER TO NEAR THE WESTERN AK PEN
FRI. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE BERING SEA FRI. A WEATHER FRONT
MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
RAIN FRI NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT FRI. SO
EXPECTED STRONG GAP FLOWS TO DEVELOP IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. STRONG MID
LEVEL SE WINDS WILL CREATE GENERALLY DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS TO LEE OF
MOUNTAINS WITH THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION FALLING ALONG THE COAST AND
SE EXPOSURES. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY START AS SNOW...BUT AS MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN THU NIGHT AS TEMPS WARM. STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL MAY PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH
PORTAGE VALLEY THU AND THOMPSON PASS THU EVENING AND FRI.

.SW ALASKA...BLOWING SNOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD TO
THE COASTAL DELTA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE THROUGH GAPS IN
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND SNOW SPREADS INLAND. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
OVERNIGHT IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...SO SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH
RAIN ALONG SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND END THE BLIZZARD THREAT. ALSO
WARMING TEMPS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INLAND TONIGHT.
THE BLIZZARD THREAT ALONG THE COASTAL 155 ZONE SHOULD END ON THU
MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH...TEMPS IN THIS ZONE SHOULD STAY SAFELY
COLD ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.

.ALEUTIANS...
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PRIBILOFS ENDED AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVED NORTH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE CHAIN THU. THIS CENTER WILL BRING MORE SHOWERY
WEATHER AS IT TRACKS EAST. STRONG NORTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
CENTER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. RIDGING MOVES TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT CUTS OFF AND TRACKS
EAST. MONDAY AND BEYOND...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDING INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA...BUT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE WAVE PATTERN AND THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH WILL INFLUENCE BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS. THAT SAID...NO MAJOR STORMS SEEM LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK
REMAINING OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 AND 161. UPCOMING BLIZZARD WATCHES 125
AND 131.
MARINE..GALE 120 125 129 130 140 160 172 175 176 179 180 185.
        HEAVY FREEZING 127 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 13