Gale Warning 257, NWS Anchorage, AK

038 
FZAK52 PAFC 050309 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
610 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

UPDATED ZONE 170

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB 500 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA WED AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING WILL MOVE INLAND BY TUE MORNING. A 971 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR ON WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT E OF 160W. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...S WIND 10 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
610 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT BERING
SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.

.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT SW 25 KT W OF SHEMYA. SEAS 14 FT
BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
176E. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
SHEMYA...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT.
SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT.  

$$
TP

176 
FZAK52 PAFC 051212
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 400 NM NORTH OF ATTU WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
EASTERN SIBERIA THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN BERING MOVES INLAND WESTERN AK TODAY. A 971 MB PACIFIC LOW
CENTERED 570 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI WED MORNING WILL TRACK TO AROUND
160 NM EAST OF UNALASKA AT 960 MB EARLY THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING FROM NUNIVAK
ISLAND E.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT.  
$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 
FT.
.WED...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N AND W OF SHEMYA. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT.  
$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A HIGH
LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND THAT EXTENDS ABOVE 70N.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE BERING SEA. A LONG AND SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN BERING IS MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE PRIBILOFS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH SNOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY THAT IS CLASHING
WITH THE STRONG RIDGING TO THE EAST TO GENERATE A NARROW BUT INTENSE
BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND GENERALLY SLOW-EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN. THE
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
TOWARD THE MAINLAND COAST THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE COAST AS THE FRONT FALLS APART AND PUSHES INLAND
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FEATURE MOVE
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW TO MOST AREAS WITH
GENERALLY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL EYES TURN
TO A LARGE PACIFIC LOW THAT ALL MODELS BRING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM WILL BECOME A MAJOR
WEATHER-MAKER AS IT USHERS IN STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE GFS IS
A BIT OF AN OUTLIER BEING SLOWER WITH THE LOW MOVEMENT...WHILE THE
GEM IS THE FASTEST MODEL. THE EC/NAM SOLUTION IS THE MIDDLE GROUND
AND LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ALSO STILL EXISTS INVOLVING THE DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTH OF ANY TRIPLE-POINT LOW AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THINK SOME WEAK TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY SEEMS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL OPT FOR MORE OF A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE STORM GETS CLOSER IN TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE BERING
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS FROM KODIAK TO
SOUTHERN COOK INLET WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES NORTHWARD. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION WEDNESDAY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET CAUGHT UP ON THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER WITH WEAKENING CROSS-BARRIER FLOW THINK EVEN
INLAND AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED MAJOR
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE KEY
DETAILS OF HOW THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...INCLUDING TIMING OF THE LOW CENTER POSITION AND WHETHER OR
NOT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT TURNAGAIN ARM WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHING WARNING-LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY...THESE KEY
DETAILS WILL HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW MUCH IF ANY WIND
MAKES IT INTO ANCHORAGE DURING THIS EVENING. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THE FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES
WARM AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF WARM AIR REMAINING ALOFT WITH THIS FRONT...SO
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE GENERALLY AS SNOWFALL
NORTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM. THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS NOT VERY
WIDE...BUT IS MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST
ANYWHERE TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE UPPER 20S. ON TUESDAY THE FRONT
PUSHES INLAND AND WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
LIKELY IN INLAND AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE
STORM ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY AND SNOW/BLOWING SNOW TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS THE LOW
TRACKS INLAND LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THESE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE
VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH IS STILL IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST MOST
OF THE BERING SEA WILL SEE BROAD BUT FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FEEL THE EFFECTS
OF THE APPROACHING STORM. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD
FROM DUTCH HARBOR TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH STEADY PRECIP MOVING
IN FROM SOUTH. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP SOMEWHERE AROUND COLD BAY...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST AND
SNOW TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MAJOR LOW WILL FALL APART RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING ON SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO INTERIOR
ALASKA BY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO MUCH OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 176 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD MAR 13