Gale Warning 246, NWS Anchorage, AK

970 
FZAK62 PAFC 311151
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 31 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010300-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
BERING TODAY AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MON. A 999 MB LOW NEAR 54N 179W WILL MOVE TO 57N 177W AT 994 MB THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 63N 177E AT 999 MB MON
AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH 45N 172E AT 968 MB MON
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO 47N 179E LATE MON NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 TO 16 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 TO 15 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 TO 14 FT.
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT...BECOMING W 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W OF
54N. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT...INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W OF
167W. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 TO 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 30 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
TRANSITIONING INTO A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AND PUSH EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND IT WILL STAY IN THAT REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WHICH IS BLOCKING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
BERING. EAST OF THIS RIDGE THE FEATURES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH A LOW
SOUTH OF KODIAK THAT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND A SMALL
CIRCULATION IN COOK INLET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PATTERN SHIFT WELL
OVERALL. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A FEW
LOCAL ISSUES STANDING OUT. THE FIRST IS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A WEAK
LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE COAST BUT SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST IT WILL GO. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH MOVE IT ON SHORE NEAR ICY BAY
WITH THE UKMET FARTHER WEST AND ECMWF FARTHER EAST. THE HIGHER
RESOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/NAM LIKELY ARE HELPING THOSE MODELS RESOLVE
THE IMPACT OF THE COLDER AIR FROM OUTFLOW WINDS AND HOW THEY WILL
IMPACT THE LOWS COURSE. THEREFORE THE NAM AND GFS ARE PREFERRED
MODELS FOR THE GULF REGION ON SUNDAY.
IN THE BERING SEA THERE WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
DEVELOPING LOW IS CAUSING MORE ISSUES FOR THE MODELS THAT THE ONE IN
THE GULF. THE BEST TRACK FOR THIS LOW APPEARS TO COME FROM THE ECMWF
WITH THE NAM LAGGING TOO FAR BEHIND WITH THE SPEED OF ITS MOVEMENT.
THE MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WEAK LOW IN COOK INLET AND A SHORT WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA ARE BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THESE FEATURES FURTHER WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE TOMORROW.
THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BE A BIT OF AN EXCEPTION AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM PRINCE WILLIAM EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK LOW IN EASTERN BRISTOL BAY IS KEEPING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THAT AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THAT AREA ARE
COOL AND THAT IS ALSO HELPING CREATE SOME CONVECTIVE LIFT AND
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE AND THERE IS ENOUGH WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT TO MAKE ANY BLOWING SNOW IN THE ALEUTIANS OF PRIBILOF ISLANDS
UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE KAMCHATKA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE
OVER SIBERIA AND CAUSE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AHEAD OF
THE POTENT ALEUTIAN LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN OVER AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WHILE DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR/COPPER
RIVER BASIN AFFECTING THE STRENGTH OF THE ENSUING OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 13