Gale Warning 227, NWS Anchorage, AK

079 
FZAK61 PAFC 081259
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090300-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. A 992 MB LOW NEAR 57N 165W WILL MOVE TO 58N 145W AS
IT WEAKENS TO 1020 MB SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-090300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-090300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

381 
FZAK61 PAFC 090009
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091500-
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 58N 159W WILL MOVE TO 58N 149W AT 1015 MB SAT
AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EASTERN GULF SUN MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN.

$$

PKZ351-091500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-091500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR ALASKA CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT AS AN
ALEUTIAN LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.  A
WEAKENING RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
YUKON TERRITORY OF CANADA. THIS IS PRODUCING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING HIGH WINDS TO AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY. A FRONT FROM
THE ALEUTIAN LOW IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
AS IT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THEY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. WE CURRENTLY PREFER THE EC
SOLUTION FOR THE WEAKENING LOW...WHICH KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA...RATHER THAN THE NAM/GFS WHICH QUICKLY
MOVES IT INTO EASTERN SIBERIA. THE GFS IS ALSO THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH CREATING A WEAK SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...AND AS A RESULT HAS A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGES AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE LOW POSITION OFFER
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL SNOWFALL CHANCE
THIS WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THERE IS NOW HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST
ANCHORAGE AND THE LOWER HILLSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A TRAPPED
MOUNTAIN WAVE. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER EAST
ANCHORAGE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING TO LATE THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF.

SOUTHWEST...THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HIGH WINDS ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST TODAY. THE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL ALSO
CREATE DOWNSLOPING FROM KING SALMON TO ILIAMNA...THEREFORE THEY
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY TODAY OTHER THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. ON
THE OTHER HAND...AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY FROM DILLINGHAM WESTWARD WILL
REMAIN IN STEADY RAIN AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE NEXT
CONCERN FOR THIS AREA IS WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW. BECAUSE OF THIS A
BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WESTWARD WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW SLOWLY RIDES UP THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ONCE THE ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
WEEK...THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS PROGRESS
THROUGH THE STATE AND INTO THE GULF. THEN THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT A RIDGE WILL SET UP FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
INTERIOR. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA CLEAR AND DRY
WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 161
         BLIZZARD WARNING 131 155 185 195
         BLIZZARD WATCH 181
MARINE...STORM 130 132 136 137 160 170 172 179
         GALE 120 125 138 140 141 150 155 165 180 171 176 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK MAR 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

AKZ101-080600-

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING OVER EAST ANCHORAGE AND THE LOWER HILLSIDE...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IS APPROACHING ANCHORAGE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT GETS CLOSER WINDS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHUGACH. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FOR GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE...ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EAST ANCHORAGE AND THE LOWER HILLSIDE. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW STRONG THESE WINDS WILL BE. IN
THESE TYPES OF EVENTS IT IS COMMON TO HAVE VERY LOCALIZED STRONG
GUSTS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR EAST ANCHORAGE AND THE LOWER HILLSIDE IS
EASTERLY GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE ANCHORAGE
AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOUTHEAST
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH FOR WEST ANCHORAGE.

SEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
217 PM AKST THU MAR 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PORTAGE                 60.78N 148.85W
03/07/2013  M76 MPH                             AK   ASOS

0156 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW IGIUGIG            59.32N 155.90W
03/07/2013  M74 MPH                             AK   AWOS

&&

DSTRICKL