Gale Warning 222, NWS Anchorage, AK

734 
FZAK62 PAFC 041203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-050300-
400 AM AKST MON MAR 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 969 MB LOW NEAR 56N 170E WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN SIBERIA NEAR 62N
171E AT 985 MB TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT TRACKING TO THE
EASTERN BERING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ASHORE WESTERN AK ON TUE.
$$

PKZ411-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT BY MORNING. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  
$$

973 
FZAK62 PAFC 050011
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051500-
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR 58N 170E WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB NEAR 61N 173E WED
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE INLAND
BY TUE MORNING. A 971 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 50N 163W ON WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176E. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 TO 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176W. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
177W. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON MAR 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
W OF 167W...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.  

$$
TP

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1210 PM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING FROM PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH A
FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL INDEX TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WITH
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT PRIMARILY AFFECTING KODIAK ISLAND WITH WIND AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE MAIN CIRCULATION OF THIS LOW IS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. WIDESPREAD MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
GULF REGION IS FOCUSING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COASTLINES WITH THE
DOWN-SLOPE EFFECT IN FULL FORCE INLAND. OUT WEST...ANOTHER LARGE AND
STRONG STORM IS LOCATED WEST OF ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT AHEAD OF THE STORM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL
FOR HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERNS WHERE THE MAJOR FEATURES TEND
TO EVOLVE SLOWER THAN FAST ZONAL FLOW. THE FRONT AFFECTING KODIAK
ISLAND WILL MAKE MINIMAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE BEGINNING A RETREAT SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE
PACIFIC. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK PIECE OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH BRISTOL
BAY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THAT AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...EVEN AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES WELL SOUTHWARD. OUT WEST...THE
LARGE LOW WEST OF SHEMYA HAS BEGUN TO FILL AND WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND REACH THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IN VERY WEAKENED FORM BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM
WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE OF THE EASTERN DOMAIN FOR ITS ABILITY TO
CAPTURE LOCAL CHANNELING OF THE WINDS. OUT WEST...THE NAM WAS A
SLIGHT OUTLIER BEING TOO SLOW TO ADVANCE THE BERING SEA FRONT. AS A
RESULT...THE FASTER GFS/EC POSITION WAS PREFERRED WEST OF THE ALASKA
RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE ALASKA AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY ONE PRIMARY SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE GULF MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...GRADUALLY INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...THE WEAKENING FRONT IN THE BERING
SEA WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MAINLAND COAST
BY TUESDAY...MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS BUT NO BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS (BY ALASKA
STANDARDS) THROUGH MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BY THURSDAY
A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE PACIFIC TOWARD
KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS STORM BEARS MUCH WATCHING AS
IT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN
SOME FAVORED AREAS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 155 170 172 175 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD MAR 13