Gale Warning 221, NWS Anchorage, AK

414 
FZAK62 PAFC 031203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-040300-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 50N 156W WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND WEAKEN TODAY. A WEAK 999 MB LOW NEAR 56N 156W WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR 56N 160W TONIGHT. A 965 MB LOW NEAR 53N 165E WILL MOVE
TO 59N 173E AT 978 MB EARLY TUE MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN BERING TODAY TO THE EASTERN
BERING LATE MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING N OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ414-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. WEST OF 169W...WINDS BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING
TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
530 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 970 MB LOW CENTERED 150 MILES SOUTH OF UNALASKA IS MOVING EAST.
IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AKPEN AND IS NEARING
SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE GULF OF AK. SOLID EASTERLY GALES ALONG
WITH A SLUG OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT PRECIP BECOMES MORE SHOWERY UNTIL BECOMING STEADIER AGAIN
BEHIND THE LOW. NORTH TO WEST STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP ARE YIELDING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...AN UPPER-LVL
DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY TRAVERSING EAST THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND
SQUEEZING OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. UPPER-LVL RIDGING OVER SW AK SUPPORTS FAIR/DRY WEATHER WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHEAST. ALSO NOTEWORTHY IS A STRONG FRONT
WHICH PRECEDES A DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WHICH IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE AN ACCEPTABLE HANDLE ON THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES. THE
LOW SOUTH OF UNALASKA MOVES TO AROUND 450 MILES SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AT
999 MB SUN MORNING AND CONTINUES TO FILL OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THE FRONT SWINGS TO THE CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT AND STALLS
BEFORE WEAKENING SUN NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A BIT FURTHER
NORTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BEFORE IT STALLS OUT...BUT STILL SHOW THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND HOLDING IT AT BAY. THIS
RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF INTO AN UPPER-HIGH BY MON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST UNDERNEATH IT. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THE UPPER-HIGH STAMPED IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND/SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...WEAK
UPPER-RIDGING IS SHOWN SLICING THE EASTERN CHAIN AND AKPEN SUN INTO
MON.

FURTHER WEST...THE LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA MOVES TO AROUND 200 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ATTU IN THE LOW 970 MB RANGE MON MORNING THEN TO AROUND
500 MILES NORTH OF ATTU AT 980 MB ON TUE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACKS
FROM THE WESTERN BERING LATE TONIGHT TO THE EASTERN BERING ON MON.
MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE DEVELOPMENTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S
LIGHT SNOWS AND SLIGHT MELTING OF SNOW PACK FROM ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WERE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING ACROSS UPPER COOK INLET. THIS LOOKS TO BURN OFF TODAY...AND
WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNNY BREAKS. CONTINUED DECREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHILE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE BUILDING RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED...SO OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE
FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE THERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A CAVEAT WOULD BE
A SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED DOWN INLET GRADIENT WITH RESULTING WINDS A
TOUCH TO STRONG TO ALLOW IT TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE THE PERSISTENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND.

ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF...THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING A SQUEEZED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO EASTERLY GALES ACROSS
MARINE AREAS AND OVERSPREADING RAIN AND SNOW. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
ENOUGH HEADWAY NORTH TO ALLOW SOME GRAZING PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA AS WELL. THE FRONT DISSIPATES AS THE PARENT LOW DIES
AND SLIPS FURTHER AWAY BUT ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS IN IT'S WAKE SUCH
THAT THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

SOUTHWEST/AKPEN...
THE PEAK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW/RAIN IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AKPEN AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING WITH FROPA.
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TAPERS TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS...THOUGH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END AS ALL SNOW AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SW MAINLAND ARE
HOW MUCH AND HOW FAR MEASURABLE QPF POKES UP. WHILE THE SOUTHERN TO
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE GULF...THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF IT BARELY REACHES THE WESTERN CAPES TONIGHT AS THE LOW
BEGINS TRACKING MORE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY PRECIP FREE FROM THIS EVENT...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE
BULK OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. WITH PRE EXISTING
TEMPERATURES HERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FAHRENHEIT...EVEN
THOUGH SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE...THE SNOW SHOULD BE LOW DENSITY AND EASILY
TRANSPORTABLE BY WIND INITIALLY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOWING SNOW IS POSTED TO CAPTURE THIS THREAT PRIMARILY FROM
DILLINGHAM AND POINTS WEST. THE THREAT ENDS EARLY SUN AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND DIES...WITH PRECIP TAPERING TO SHOWERS AND WINDS
DIMINISHING. WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD
ALSO HELP CRUST OVER ANY FALLING SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM PEAK DURING DURING THE
DAY TODAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE AOR ENDING THE
SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL CHAIN AND PRIBILOFS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
FROM TRANSITORY RIDGING POKES THROUGH ON SUN WITH A RESPITE IN THE
ACTION OVER THE EASTERN CHAIN/BERING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL QUICKLY
TRACK TO THE WESTERN CHAIN TONIGHT. THERE IS WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A WINDOW DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHERE INTENSE SNOW AND STRONG EAST WINDS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
BLIZZARD. MIXING OF WINDS IN THE MODESTLY UNSTABLE LOW LAYERS MAY
ALSO ALLOW A PERIOD OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH LATE TONIGHT. A
BLIZZARD WATCH AND HIGH WIND WATCH ARE POSTED FOR THE WESTERN CHAIN
TO CAPTURE THIS THREAT. THE FRONT THEREAFTER IS WEAKENING AS IT
MARCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CHAIN AND BERING SUN NIGHT TO
MON. THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE FRONT WORKS EAST SHOULD ALLOW MOST
AREAS TO SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND GULF IS STILL PROGGED
TO BREAK DOWN AS ENERGY FROM THE BERING SEA WORKS AGAINST IT FROM THE
WEST WHILE A POLAR VORTEX SWINGING DOWN JUST EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER
ATTACKS IT FROM THE EAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONGER JET STREAM
ENERGY IS ALSO DEPICTED PUSHING BACK TOWARDS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN/GULF
SUPPORTING A LARGE PACIFIC LOW THAT ROTATES TOWARDS THE AOR. FORECAST
CHALLENGES WILL LIKELY SURROUND THIS FEATURE THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...187 195
         BLIZZARD WATCH...191
         HIGH WIND WATCH...191
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...161
MARINE...STORM...172 175 176 411 413
         GALE...130 132 136 137 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 179 180
                185
                351 352 412 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...411 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY