Gale Warning 215, NWS Anchorage, AK

129 
FZAK51 PAFC 010032
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 982 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE TO NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND WHILE WEAKENING TO 995 MB LATE THU NIGHT...THEN MOVE
INLAND AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT N 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT W OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-011500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-011500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-011500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS W. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 4 FT FROM
THE BARREN ISLANDS W. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 5 FT FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS W.
FREEZING SPRAY FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS W. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM THE BARREN
ISLANDS W IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-011500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-011500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FOOT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKST WED FEB 27 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH RIDGING OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS. SEVERAL FEATURES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND AROUND
A FAIRLY LARGE AND DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. A SMALL BUT SHARP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF IS ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA. STRONGER
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE RISES AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
TROUGH ARE LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS. A MODERATE STRENGTH
LOW IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. A VORT-MAX EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IS
ROTATING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER CENTER AND PRODUCING AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW. A MATURE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. A NARROW BAND OF STRONGER WINDS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW IS PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ALL INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH MAJOR
FEATURES BUT SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE. ECMWF AND UMKET SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER TRACK (FURTHER EAST) ON THE EASTERN GULF LOW BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TO
SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A LOW FORMING EAST OF SHEMYA TONIGHT AND
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING THURSDAY. THE ONLY TREND SEEMS TO
BE TOWARD A DEEPER LOW. WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS TO DEPICT A SMALL
AREA OF SMALLER WINDS AROUND THE LOW CENTER RECOGNIZING THAT THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. FOR NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM MOVING
TO THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPEED AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES. THERE IS A TREND TOWARD FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH.
CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF
SO WILL BLEND TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF TO REFLECT THE OVERALL TREND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND OVER COOK INLET THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM THANKS TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL COME DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH AND AREA OF PRESSURE RISES EXITS TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A REPEAT AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN A SIMILAR FASHION EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE SECOND
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER SO DON'T EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG. THE
BULK OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST PARTLY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
WEAKER WINDS TOMORROW AND A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECT TO SEE MORE PRECIP MAKE IT ACROSS THE KENAI
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ANCHORAGE.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY BUT EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN IN THE EAST AND ONLY AFFECT THE COPPER BASIN AND
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND HOLD IN UNTIL ARRIVAL OF A FRONT
FROM THE BERING SEA SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT GENERALLY
BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET
UNTIL ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR PACIFIC STORM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS LOW.
HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND
AND/OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THE PRIBILOFS TO THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS GAINING IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
BLOCKING RIDGE FROM THE ARCTIC SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW STRONG IT WILL
BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA. INITIALLY THIS WILL
CAUSE THE MAJOR SYSTEM ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AT THE END OF THE WEEK
TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...KEEPING
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING
LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THIS RIDGE AND
BRING PRECIP BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY TO MID WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...175 176.
         GALE WARNING...120 170 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 13