Gale Warning 173, NWS Anchorage, AK

218 
FZAK51 PAFC 140053
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE WED NIGHT. A 985 MB LOW 500 NM
SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
75 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY THU MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN TO 995 MB 
AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 30 KT BECOMING 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT E 45 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-141500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-141500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-141500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 30 KT. W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-141500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-141500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 8 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 PM AKST TUE FEB 12 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING...AND IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. BELOW THIS A SURFACE LOW IS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...A DEVELOPING LOW IS APPROACHING KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING TODAY...AND BE THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL STARTING THIS
EVENING. YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHCENTRAL IN THE NEAR TERM. THE LOCAL WRF IS
CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE SNOW INTO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT VALLEY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE SNOW IS
CURRENTLY MAINLY OVER COOK INLET WITH ONLY WEAK SNOW SHOWERS PASSING
OVER TOWN SO THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. THE MODELS (EXCEPT FOR
THE GFS) ARE THEN IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT WAVE OF SNOW FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOCATION OF THE NEXT ALEUTIAN
LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH ITS
INTENSITY. THE MORNING PACKAGE MOSTLY USED THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS
LOW WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN THE NAM/EC THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS WITH THE SNOW
CURRENTLY MOVING UP COOK INLET. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
UP COOK INLET...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO IMPACT THE POPULATION CENTERS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE CASE
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AS WEAK DOWN SLOPING SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP OVER ANCHORAGE. THE NEXT WAVE OF
SNOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE CURRENT ONE AS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL  IS
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE
PRODUCED DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THIS
EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS IN THE RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST...WEAK LOWS IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING
LOWS...AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW FOR THE
PRIBILOFS...QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING...WHEN THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE
AREA WITH SNOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ALEUTIAN LOW TRACK THAT IS SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF
EASTERLY MOVING ALEUTIAN LOWS INTO THE GULF...WITH RELATIVELY SHORT
BREAKS IN BETWEEN LOWS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SETUP WILL BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AS THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
A STRENGTHENING SIBERIAN RIDGE WILL MOVE IN THE
ALEUTIANS...PREVENTING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FURTHER LOWS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 170 172 175 352
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 411 412
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK FEB 13