Gale Warning 164, NWS Anchorage, AK

473 
FZAK51 PAFC 111520 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
615 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

UPDATED ZONES 120 AND 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 MB LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A 998 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 130 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD
AND WEAKEN TO 1011 MB WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-120300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
615 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
RESURRECTION BAY
615 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT THIS MORNING THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 FT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-120300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-120300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-120300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-120300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-120300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MID MORNING THEN DIMINISHING
TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-120300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-120300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-120300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-120300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-120300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

124 
FZAK51 PAFC 120037 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

CORRECTED ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL TRACK TO 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUE NIGHT BEFORE HEADING 
INLAND EARLY WED.

$$

PKZ120-121500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.  
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-121500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-121500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-121500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-121500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. S GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-121500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-121500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-121500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-121500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-121500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-121500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-121500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-121500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN FEB 10 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS SHIFTED INTO A STABLE PATTERN THAT
WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS
COMPOSED OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WITH AN ANCHORING
UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND
FLATTENED A BIT...SETTING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND UP UNDER BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN AREA OF PRESSURE RISES BEHIND YESTERDAYS LOW
IS RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION
AND EVEN INTO THE MAT-SU VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. SNOW IS
FALLING AT MANY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE FIRST IN A PARADE OF RELATIVELY
WEAK DISTURBANCES IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AKPEN TOWARD THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48
HOURS...WITH AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHING BEYOND THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE ONLY
DISCREPANCY OF NOTE INVOLVES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF KODIAK MOVING TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE NAM HAS BEEN
AN OUTLIER WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE THE
EC/GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK INTO
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FURTHER WEST TRACK
WOULD SUGGEST AN AREA OF SNOW WOULD AGAIN RETURN TO THE ANCHORAGE AND
MAT VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM WOULD KEEP THE COOK INLET
REGION MOSTLY DRY. AT THIS TIME THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THIS FURTHER
WEST TRACK BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS RADAR RETURNS OVER
BRISTOL BAY SUGGESTING DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FARTHER TO THE
WEST THAN THE NAM DEPICTS. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...A STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TOWARD
KODIAK ISLAND. THE EC IS THE OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...BEING BOTH
SLOWER AND WEAKER. NEARLY ALL OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A FASTER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION...WHICH IS PREFERRED AND WILL BE INCORPORATED
INTO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ARE REPLACED BY PRESSURE
FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI AND CENTRAL GULF
IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE PINPOINTING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...AND BY EXTENSION FIGURING
OUT HOW FAR WEST INTO COOK INLET THE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. BASED ON MODEL...SATELLITE...AND RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT AFTER A SHORT BREAK THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL BE
WORKING BACK INTO THE ANCHORAGE AND MAT VALLEY LATER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE COOLED ENOUGH TO ALLOW ALL-SNOW BY THIS
POINT...AND FAIRLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE THE HILLSIDE AND OTHER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THEY WILL NOT ONLY BE FURTHER EAST AND CLOSER TO
THE LOW...BUT ALSO WILL HAVE A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO SOUTHCENTRAL...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP PERIODS OF SNOW MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER TIME THE SMALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY ADD UP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SOUTH FACING
MOUNTAINS ENHANCE THE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...NUMEROUS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE COLD UPPER LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW WILL KEEP
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT MAJOR STORM MOVES IN
MIDWEEK AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE
CENTRAL AND/OR EASTERN ALEUTIANS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK. STAY
TUNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD BY
MIDWEEK...PAVING THE WAY FOR A RETURN OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH ALTERNATING WARM-UPS AND COOL-DOWNS OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND...AND NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 145
MARINE...GALE 120
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD FEB 13