Gale Warning 149, NWS Anchorage, AK

317 
FZAK51 PAFC 040652 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

UPDATED ZONES 127 128 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF KING
SALMON BY MON AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 992 MB THEN TO 70 NM NORTH OF
DILLINGHAM AT 995 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A 989 MB LOW WILL BE 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ126-041500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ127-041500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
950 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ128-041500-
VALDEZ ARM
950 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
950 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
$$

PKZ136-041500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ137-041500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 3 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA
(AKPEN) AND THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE A LOW DEVELOPING ON A FRONT
STRETCHED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER
AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE NAM IS IN BETWEEN ON SPEED
AND HAS THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAJOR LONG-WAVE FEATURES ARE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF UNALASKA WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA...AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH
AMERICAN WEST COAST THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STRETCHES FROM ABOUT DUTCH HARBOR EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN BENDS SOUTHWARD. A WEAKER
FRONT IS JUST ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
WASH OUT TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT WILL
REACH KODIAK THIS EVENING AND THE NORTH GULF COAST LAT TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER HITTING THE COAST...BUT
WILL MOVE INLAND PROVIDING ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THIS THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF UNALASKA
SPLITS INTO TWO WEAKER LOWS...ONE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE OTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT OVER THE AKPEN THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATER TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THEN
WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
UNALASKA WILL SPLIT LATER SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
AIR INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND ELEVATED CHANCES OF SNOW INTO ALL
OF MAINLY SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
AS THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF UNALASKA MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT...SOME
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE PRIBILOFS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE ALREADY STRONG WINDS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL EASE UP ON SUNDAY AS THE WINDS AND SNOWFALL ABATE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL THEN SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA ON MONDAY. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ON MONDAY AS THE ALEUTIAN RIDGE
HOLDS IN PLACE AND THEN BREAK APART MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 195.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 138 140 150 155 170 172 175 176 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 13