Gale Warning 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

351 
FZAK62 PAFC 111224
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 44N 174W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO 55N 170W AT 975 MB
LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE TO 60N 173W LATE SAT NIGHT AT 978 MB.

$$

PKZ411-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E OF 175W...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT BY MIDDAY. W OF
175W...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E OF 175W...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. W OF 175W...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E OF 175W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT BY MIDDAY. W
OF 175W...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

272 
FZAK62 PAFC 120026
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 MB LOW AT 48N 172W WILL MOVE TO 57N 170W LATE SAT MORNING AT
976 MB THEN TO 63N 171W BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

494 
FZAK62 PAFC 121221
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR 55N 170W WILL MOVE TO 63N 170W SUN AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. A 978 MB LOW NEAR 49N 172W WILL MOVE TO
53N 169W AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON A 987 MB LOW
NEAR 51N 162W WILL MOVE ASHORE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 10 KT S OF 55N. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N . 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58 N. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF 168W. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF 168W. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON N OF 57N. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

985 
FZAK62 PAFC 130003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW AT 59N 170W WILL MOVE TO 63N 171W SUN AFTERNOON THEN TO
68N 172W AT 986 MB MON AFTERNOON. A 988 MB LOW AT 50N 163W SUN
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 68N 158W BY MON AFTERNOON. A 993 MB LOW AT 
49N 177W LATE SUN MORNING WILL MOVE TO 51N 178E BY MON AFTERNOON AT
1002 MB. 

$$

PKZ411-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N OF 56N...W WIND 20 KT. S OF 56N...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT...BECOMING W 20 KT W OF 169W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

336 
FZAK62 PAFC 131218
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR 62N 170W WILL MOVE TO 65N 172W AT 985 MB MON
MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A 988 MB LOW NEAR 47N 165W WILL QUICKLY TRACK
NORTH AND MOVE ASHORE SW ALASKA NEAR 59N 160W AT 984 MB EARLY MON
MORNING. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 49N 175W WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB MON
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE LATE MON NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
POSITION.

$$

PKZ411-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 15 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
EVENING. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
167W...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N. 
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN AK AND YUKON TERRITORY
WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG IN IT'S WAKE.
TRANSITORY UPPER-RIDGING BEHIND IT IS SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF A
NORTHEAST MOVING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
THE EASTERN BERING TROUGH SUPPORTS A NW TO SE ORIENTED FRONT WITH
VARIOUS WAVES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT'S AXIS. ONE IS
CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS PUSHING NORTH TOWARDS
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. ANOTHER HAS DEVELOPED TODAY AROUND 200 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AND IS ROTATING NORTHEAST TOWARDS KODIAK
ISLAND. FURTHER WEST...BROAD CYCLONIC AND UNSTABLE FLOW EXISTS OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN EVIDENCED BY THE SHOWER COVERAGE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ANCHORED BY A COMPLEX UPPER-LOW
BETWEEN THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND ATTU. ALSO OF NOTE IS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 900 MILES SOUTH OF ATKA
TRACKING NORTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE AN ADEQUATE HANDLE ON THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AND HAVE
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TREND TO A SUBSTANTIALLY MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LVL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND CHAIN...THE PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE CHAIN
WILL MOVE TO NEAR ATKA EARLY FRI EVENING AND TRACK TO AROUND 170
MILES WEST OF SAINT PAUL SAT EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE FAR
NORTHERN BERING SEA ON SUN. THE UKMET AND GEM GLOBAL ARE
APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES EAST OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONSENSUS ON THE
LOW'S POSITION SAT AND SUN...BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SPIRIT OF THE
TRACK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY FROM THE BROAD COMPLEX UPPER-LOW BEGINS
DIGGING THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
WHILE AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE IN THE GULF/NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND/GULF...THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING
MOVES ASHORE SW AK OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS AND SHEARS APART AS THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PARTIALLY SPLITS OFF WITH ONE LOBE
CONTINUING NORTH PAST ST LAWRENCE ISLAND INTO EASTERN SIBERIA...AND
THE OTHER EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI. WITH THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE...A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BERING/ALEUTIAN TROUGH DIGS. THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO
BE NEAR 140W LONGITUDE...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ON IT'S 'DIRTY' SIDE AS THE 300 MB JET BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
AND STRENGTHENS WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW COPIOUS MOISTURE AND
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR TO ADVECT DIRECTLY AND PERSISTENTLY INTO THE
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -7 CELSIUS OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA ARE
DEPICTED RISING TO NEAR 0 CELSIUS LATE SAT AND TO POSSIBLY +5 CELSIUS
ON SUN WITH COMMENSURATE NUMBERS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
THE SOUTHERN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN BERING FRONT WILL
TRAVERSE KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND THEN TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND ON FRI BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE EASTERN GULF FRI
NIGHT. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES SHOULD
GENERALLY JUST SEEING PERIPHERAL SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE WAVE
REMAINING FAR ENOUGH OFF-SHORE AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHEARING APART AS
IT APPROACHES WITH THE BULK OF SUPPORTING UPPER-ENERGY DEFLECTED
SOUTH. THUS THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS/PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. KODIAK ISLAND SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFF-SHORE BRIEFLY ON
FRI.

FORECAST CHALLENGES THEN TURN TO THE FIRST OF MANY WAVES OF ENERGY
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE WITH A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
ALEUTIANS/BERING. WHILE NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
TREND TO RAIN AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON...THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER AN INITIAL COOL DOWN-INLET COMPONENT TO THE WIND COUPLED WITH
THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDING IT COULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND/OR OTHER SHELTERED LOW-LYING AREAS
INLAND FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT
IT BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO RETARD PRECIPITATION INITIALLY ON
SAT ACROSS THE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY AS EASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM
WINDS INCREASE. THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT IS GOING MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BELIEVE THIS STRENGTHENING UP INLET TREND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BE SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT
LIGHT. PRECIPITATION ON SUN HOWEVER HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AND CONSIDERING FREEZING LEVELS RISING TO NEAR OR ABOVE AREA
MOUNTAIN LEVELS AND A MELTING SNOWPACK...FLOODING MAY BECOME A
CONCERN IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS. THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT
RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS OF FOG OVER THE GULF OF AK THIS WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST/AKPEN...
PARTIAL SPLITTING OF THE UPPER ENERGY DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE SW
MAINLAND AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE AKPEN...SO SHOULD SEE A
SWATH OF SNOW ENVELOP THE REGION TONIGHT...MIXING WITH RAIN OVER FAR
SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN IT'S WAKE ON FRI IS SHORT-LIVED FOR SW AK...WITH A RETURN
OF MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING MORE
PRECIPITATION (SNOW AND RAIN) OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT. INITIAL BRIEF
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY DOWNSLOPE AREAS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE
ALEUTIAN/ALASKAN RANGE...BUT PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN AS FLOW
GOES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD SEE GALES RE-EMERGE ALONG MARINE AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO
NEAR STORM FORCE OUT BAYS BAYS/PASSES/CHANNELED TERRAIN FRI NIGHT
ALONG THE AKPEN AND WESTERN CAPES. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE AKPEN
LOOKS SAFELY ALL RAIN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THE STRONG NORTH PACIFIC
LOW. A SQUEEZED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH IT'S APPROACH WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD GALES TO MIN STORM FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE/HIGH WIND WARNING
LEVELS...AS THE LOW WILL ALREADY HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND BE
SLOWLY FILLING BY THE TIME IT'S CORE OF WINDS ADVANCE ON THE CHAIN.
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD REACH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS WELL...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION  WILL PROBABLY START AS WET SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD
ARRIVES THERE FRI NIGHT. FURTHER WEST...AS THE COMPLEX UPPER-LOW
DRIFTS A BIT SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE FAR WESTERN CHAIN...TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SHOULD WARM A TOUCH...WITH THE DECREASED INSTABILITY HELPING TO
REDUCE THE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER-LVL PATTERN STILL LOOKS MILD AND WET TO START THE NEXT WEEK
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...THOUGH THE UPPER JET MAY LOOSEN IT'S
STRANGLEHOLD TUE/WED AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE AND COOL. THE
PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK DRY...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS BLOCKED AND
WET. ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIAN CHAIN...CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER BENIGN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT NO STRONG
DEFINED FEATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM...170 172 175
         GALE...120 130 132 136 137 138 140 150 155 165 171 176 351
                352 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-145-111400-

...WIND AND RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS WEEKEND...

A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A STRONG WEATHER FRONT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
COOK INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY REGION DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY
AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT HAS A TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH
IT AND THEREFORE WILL BRING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE AREA.
A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AND IMPACT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON THE KENAI PENINSULA THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ON
SATURDAY BUT THEN TRANSITION INTO RAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

THE ANCHORAGE AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY
THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO STRAIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH
THE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND RISE ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL LIKELY NOT SEE STRONG WINDS UNTIL THE
SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE WIND IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
THESE AREAS AND THEREFORE THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WIND AND RAIN
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE STORM DEVELOPS.

THE MAT-SU REGION WILL HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR AREAS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
BEGIN AS SNOW WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THIS
STORM PUSHES IN WARM AIR AREAS AT SEA LEVEL WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO
RAIN AND THEN RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO VALDEZ AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN BY SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT
IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN WHETHER THE FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION OR PUSH EASTWARD MUCH FASTER.

AS SNOW TURNS OVER TO RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT WATER
OVERFLOW ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS THROUGHOUT SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.