Gale Warning 122, NWS Anchorage, AK

514 
FZAK61 PAFC 121350 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 12 2013

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-130300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 56N 157W WILL MOVE TO 59N 150W AT 1008 MB WED
MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE WED AFTERNOON. A 991 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL MOVE TO 55N 157W WED AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WED EVENING. 

$$

PKZ351-130300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 12 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-130300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 12 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

187 
FZAK61 PAFC 130016
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 12 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-131500-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 58N 151W WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING. A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE 
TO 55N 155W WED EVENING AT 990 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC 
TO 57N 151W THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-131500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 12 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-131500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 12 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

611 
FZAK61 PAFC 131217
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-140300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE THU MORNING. A 980 MB LOW NEAR
53N 156W WILL MOVE TO 59N 149W AND WEAKEN TO 997 MB FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-140300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-140300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

293 
FZAK61 PAFC 140025
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-141500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 
47N 160W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TO 56N 153W THU
MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN 
KENAI PENINSULA THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-141500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-141500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

771 
FZAK61 PAFC 141217
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 14 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-150300-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 983 MB LOW NEAR 54N 154W WILL WEAKEN TO 996 MB IS IT MOVES INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRI MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-150300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST THU FEB 14 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 35 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-150300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST THU FEB 14 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S WIND 40 TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
125 PM AKST MON FEB 11 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. A SERIES OF WEAK MESO-SCALE WAVES ARE
TRANSITING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
OF THESE WAVES IS HEADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS
MORNING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SNOW. THE WEAKER AND SMALLER
WAVES UPSTREAM ARE PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS THEY CROSS
THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE
CHARACTER TO SOME OF THIS SNOW AS SEEN IN RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND INDICATED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS ON AREA SOUNDINGS.

THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
30N AND 40N LATITUDE. AN AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC IS INITIATING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS LOW WILL
BECOME THE MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEM FOR MID WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MANY WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH. WILL
MAKE USE OF RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TO PROVIDE DETAILS FOR THE
FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST THEN EMPLOY A MORE BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST
FOR TIMING OF PRECIP AFTER THIS. A NOTABLY STRONGER WAVE SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE KEY
TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL GO STRONGLY WITH THE
REST OF THE MODELS WHICH TRACK THE LOW TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH EVOLUTION OF
DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...ESPECIALLY WITH
SECONDARY WAVE WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. BASED
ON THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LITTLE CHANGE TO EXISTING FORECAST UNTIL MODELS BETTER LOCK ON
TO A SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS ONE UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
ANOTHER ONE CURRENTLY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE IN. EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WON'T BE FAR BEHIND - MOVING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ENERGY
(AND STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION) WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BRINGING
THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUE NIGHT. IN MANY
CASES THIS IS A GOOD SET-UP TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER THE KENAI
MOUNTAINS TO ANCHORAGE. HOWEVER...THE LOW LOOKS TOO WEAK WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SHORT-WAVE AND LOW IS NEUTRAL.
ALL OF THIS POINTS TOWARD ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT FROM THE WESTERN
KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU. THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY
WITH LARGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE A CLASSIC STRONG
WARM SECTOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE LEE OF
THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WEAK AND SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK OVERHEAD OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE NEW COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT
GENERALLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS THESE MOVE THROUGH...WITH VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING ROTATES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A DEVELOPING
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON THE
CURRENT SUITE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST IMPACT
WEATHER MAY BE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ANOTHER DROPS DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DEVELOPING NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS INTO THE EASTERN
BERING ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING SNOW
OR EVEN A BLIZZARD RIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY
SET UP TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WILL BE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE BERING
SEA TO MAINLAND ALASKA AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MODELS THEN INDICATE A BLOCKING RIDGE SETTING
UP SHOP FROM THE BERING TO SIBERIA AND HOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 13