Brisk Wind Advisory 57, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED APR 17 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS. SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES CROP UP FOR A LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS PLAYS ONLY A SMALL PART IN THE FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS ABOVE NORMAL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WHICH HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTH BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. A RIDGE IS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WITH A SUBSIDIARY SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
MOVING NORTH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA TONIGHT
FOR AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW. A SHORT-WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHORT-WAVE WILL THEN ESCAPE THE EXITING
LOW AND WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
AT THE SAME TIME THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND BE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ON SATURDAY.

SOME (MAINLY MOUNTAIN) SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHWARD BRINGING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WARMER AND MOISTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...AND
FOR SOME AREAS THIS WILL BE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL WEEKS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE .
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127 155 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG APR 13