Brisk Wind Advisory 52, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED APR 10 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS
(SATURDAY AFTERNOON). THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS AS IT PUSHES EAST AND SOUTH...AND WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE OVER-ALL IDEA IS THE SAME AND DOES NOT
CREATE TO MANY FORECAST ISSUES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA WITH A WEST TO EAST
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM HOOPER BAY TO EAGLE. A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS...ALONG ABOUT 170 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL PIVOT ON EAGLE WITH THE WESTERN PORTION REACHING KODIAK
ISLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRAG THE ALASKA LOW EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THIS LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF
ALASKA. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THE WESTERN BERING RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST AND TILT INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA.

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE CURRENT SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW...PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY FRIDAY MORNING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE ENDED OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ROUGHLY THE SAME THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING
EASTWARD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THEN DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 140 141 160 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG APR 13