Wind Chill Advisory 5, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1152 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

PLENTY OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM OF THE ABR CWA WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALL DAY HAS FINALLY
MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH CIGS DROPPING BELOW 1000 FT
AND ALSO AREAS OF FG/BR. A FEW WEB CAMS TO THE WEST AND NORTH
WITHIN STRATUS DECK REVEAL FG/BR AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES. THESE
FEATURES WERE ADDED INTO THE FORECAST ALREADY EARLIER TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHILE WEAK WAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WEST
OF THE MISSOURI AS TRACK OF THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECAST AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL ALSO BE
DEALING WITH CLOUD COVER. DIFFICULT TO FIND A MEDIUM BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES TO COME UP WITH A TEMP FORECAST.

VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE POURING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
925 MB TEMPS TANKING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST CWA. WILL NOT SEE MUCH MOVEMENT IN TEMPS IN THIS AREA
AND MAY EVEN STAY STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WHICH DEVELOP BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED
HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS BY THIS TIME BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DEFINE EXACT AREAS. WILL BE GOING INTO
ADVISORY...THEN WARNING...THEN BACK TO ADVISORY FOR SOME
AREAS...BUT WITHOUT KNOWING EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL BE AT THIS
POINT...AND THE TIMING OF IT ALL. INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO CUTE THIS
EARLY WITH ADVISORY/WARNING OUTLINE AND WHICH COUNTIES TO PUT IN
WHICH HEADLINE...WILL JUST OPT FOR LATER SHIFTS TO BETTER DEFINE
IT WHEN TIME GETS CLOSER. COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN
UPDATED HWO AND IN ZFP ANYWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE STALLS JUST WEST OF
THE REGION...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES...NONE WILL PROVIDE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. A BAROCLINIC ZONE MORE OR LESS WOBBLES OVERHEAD TO START
THINGS OFF...WITH COLD AIR OVER THE EAST. THE FIRST IN THE SERIES
OF WAVES WILL ENHANCE WESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING...ALLOWING MODIFIED
PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL HELP ERODE SNOW COVER...AND
ASSIST IN KEEPING US COMPARATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS NEW A SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS CEILINGS FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. EXPECT THESE STRATUS CEILINGS TO BE REPLACED BY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH
CAA...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-302145-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
343 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013 /243 PM MST TUE JAN 29 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND BRING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 25 BELOW TO PERHAPS AS COLD AS 45 BELOW ZERO BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TMT