Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
737 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.UPDATE...
TROF AXIS SITS BETWEEN ABERDEEN AND MOBRIDGE. ABERDEEN SOUNDING
SUGGEST CAP AND WEAK SHEAR WILL BE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN
CONVECTION INTENSITY...HOWEVER A FEW CELLS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG HIGHWAY 83. MAIN UPDATE INCLUDES LOWERING COVERAGE OF STORMS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE DRAPED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WILL INTERACT WITH A HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. WHILE SURFACE BASE CAPE VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA CURRENTLY
EXCEEDS 4500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK. 0-6 KM
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ND...OR
WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. WITH LIMITED SHEAR...BUT
EXCELLENT INSTABILITY...WOULD EXPECT MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN ND. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT STORMS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THIS CWA LATER THIS
EVENING AS SOME HI-RE MODELS SUGGEST. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER
WARM WITH MOST OF THE CWA CURRENTLY SEEING +10C. BASED ON THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...PLUS SUPPORT FROM THE ARW/MNN...BELIEVE
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 212 WILL SEE ISO/SCT
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS PLUS A SLOW STORM
MOTION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AFTER. THAT SAID...THE
NAM12 HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A RIDGE RIDING SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MID MORNING.
WITH LIMITED LLM...WILL KEEP THIS TIME PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE EXTENDED OPENS...NW FLOW ALOFT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA.
IN FACT...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST OVER NOAM OVER THE
WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK IS FOR SUCH AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN THAT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW REGARDING FORECAST
SENSIBLE WEATHER FIELDS. MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONE OR MORE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY BE STEERED THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO INCLUDE EXTREME UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER TROFFING FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN
FACT...THE CURRENT ITERATION OF LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE AMPLIFYING FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ONE OR MORE
BACK DOOR COLD FRO-PAS IN THE OUT PERIODS...AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIRMASSES SLIP DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF
THE ODD THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT....MAINLY FOR
KMBG/KABR. A SURFACE TROF WILL ALSO DRIFT THROUGH THE
AREA...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO WEST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-261000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 /352 AM MDT TUE JUN 25 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
802 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 N JAVA                45.56N  99.90W
06/25/2013                   WALWORTH           SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EDMUNDS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED REPORT FROM
            SPOTTER LOCATED NEAR BOWDLE WHO WAS LOOKING NORTHWEST
            AND REPORTED SEEING ONE OR TWO FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THE
            STORM LOCATED NEAR JAVA

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300638

VIPOND

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