Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE STORMS...THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE BRIEF. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERE STORMS FOR THE SE CWA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR
TOO. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO EXTREME WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH VERY HIGH
PWATS PLUS ONGOING CONVECTION THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IS NOW
UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY.

INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY TRACK INTO NORTHER
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE LONG TERM TRANSITIONS FROM WET TO DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN US FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CLOSING OFF ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EAST IN THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EAST IN THE CWA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE AFFECTED AT OR IN THE VICINITY WITH RAIN ALONG WITH THUNDER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THIS PASSES THROUGH. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.
OTHERWISE...AFTER THE STORMS PASS EXPECT VFR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
BEHIND LATER THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
508 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-221015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
508 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 /408 AM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ALL THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AND
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY.

SERR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
337 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W LAKE NORDEN         44.58N  97.25W
06/21/2013  E65 MPH          HAMLIN             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOME TREE DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300589

SCARLETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 S SELBY               45.43N 100.03W
06/21/2013                   WALWORTH           SD   PUBLIC

            PICKUP AND CAMPER BLOWN OFF HIGHWAY BY STRONG EAST
            WINDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300590

KG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     TORNADO          5 WNW LAKE NORDEN       44.61N  97.30W
06/21/2013                   HAMLIN             SD   PUBLIC

            RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300591

SCARLETT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW LAKE NORDEN        44.59N  97.22W
06/21/2013  E80 MPH          HAMLIN             SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300593

SCARLETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
356 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             6 W HILLSIDE COLONY     44.74N  98.17W
06/21/2013  M4.00 INCH       SPINK              SD   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR APPX 15 MINUTES...PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED FROM
            NSSL SHAVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300594

WFO ABR