Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. STILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LLJ GETS
CRANKED UP A BIT LATER TNT. HOWEVER QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THERE
WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PERHAPS AN
ELEVATED HAILER OR TWO.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS ALL AGREE WELL AND CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT AT
BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOSING IT OFF. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS
THIS DEVELOPMENT VERY WELL. AS THE LLJ INCREASES INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD UP AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CWA WHILE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH. THIS
INTERACTION ALONG A GOOD LOW LEVEL SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOSES
OFF...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY GOOD ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
ACROSS THE CWA AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO START
THINGS OFF WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY LEADING TO
CONSTANT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ONCE THE UPPER
LOW PUSHES EAST...A COL AREA FORMS OVERHEAD...WITH WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT DURING
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM
LATER TNT AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BRIEF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE STORMS THERE MAY
BE A DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS THAT SHOULD MIX OUT SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1029 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-181530-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1029 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013 /929 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE. SOME OF THESE COULD
BECOME SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHTTIME HOURS SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MOHR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
859 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SDZ048-180230-
LYMAN-
859 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LYMAN COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 857 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAMILL...OR 25 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHAMBERLAIN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE IONA.

WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
903 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NW PIERRE             44.45N 100.44W
05/17/2013  M61 MPH          STANLEY            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 61 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED WITH
            ANEMOMETER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300425

TROGDON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
926 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E HAYES               44.37N 101.00W
05/17/2013  M58 MPH          STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY MESONET WIND EQUIPMENT AT HAYS AIRPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300426

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SDZ037-048-051-180315-
BUFFALO-HAND-LYMAN-
944 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
BUFFALO...EASTERN LYMAN AND SOUTHWESTERN HAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
CDT...

AT 941 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHELBY...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CHAMBERLAIN...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE LEES CORNER.

WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1042 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW PIERRE             44.40N 100.37W
05/17/2013  M61 MPH          HUGHES             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 61 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED WITH
            ANEMOMETER

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300425

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1124 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SDZ033>037-045-048-051-180630-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT PIERRE...ONIDA...PIERRE...
HIGHMORE...MILLER...MURDO...PRESHO...FORT THOMPSON
1124 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013 /1024 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

...GUSTY WINDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA..

A PHENOMENA KNOWN AS A WAKE LOW SOUTHEAST OF PIERRE IS CAUSING
STRONG WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. RECENTLY THE PIERRE AIRPORT REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 54
MPH. ALSO...A STORM SPOTTER SOUTHWEST OF PRESHO REPORTED A GUST
TO 65 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

IF YOU LIVE IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY PREPARE YOURSELF FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS EVENING.

TDK